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Top 20 Posts Of All Time: Reader’s Choice
Start of long weekend, where the Nation trips happily outside into the warm summer sun. Well, sun anyway---more or less. Not really summer, either. Turns out the climate change forecasts…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Subjective Versus Objective Bayes (Versus Frequentism): Part Final: Parameters!
(All the stuff in this series is, in a fuller form, in my new upcoming book, which is tentatively called Logical Probability and Statistics---but I've only changed the title 342…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Subjective Versus Objective Bayes (Versus Frequentism): Part IV
Read Part III Just review and clarification this time, folks. Dirty hard work. But necessary given the confusion from last post. Time to pump some neurons! Next time we---finally!---get to…
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Subjective Versus Objective Bayes (Versus Frequentism): Part III
Following Part II, here are some examples to show the differences between objectivist, subjectivist, and frequentist probabilities derived from fixed premises and set conclusions. Example 1 Not all probability is…
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A Common Fallacy In Global Warming Arguments
Our post today is provided by Terry Oldberg, M.S.E., M.S.E.E., P.E. Engineer-Scientist, Citizen of the U.S. That's a lot of letters, Terry! Oldberg joined our Spot the Fallacy Contest, which…
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Subjective Versus Objective Bayes (Versus Frequentism): Part II
Read Part I. What is the probability that "The Detroit Tigers win today's game" (which has not yet been played)? The truth of the proposition (in quotes) is not known…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Subjective Versus Objective Bayes (Versus Frequentism): Part I
Definitions We first have to define what subjectivity and objectivity are and from these see what happens. For those unused to reading long stretches of prose, here is the conclusion,…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Russian Roulette And Certainty
Suppose one fine day you pick up your Smith & Wesson 586 ($809 MSRP), a .357 Magnum revolver---which means that thingee in the middle spins around, advancing one round at…