Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Let’s Try This Time Series Thing Again: Part IV
Part I, II, III, IV, V. We have before us X1 to X156. We started by assuming that something, called T, caused these data to take the values it did.…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Let’s Try This Time Series Thing Again: Part III
Part I, II, III, IV, V. The objection which will occur to those, Lord help them, who have had some statistical training is that "increased" means a combination of "linear…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Let’s Try This Time Series Thing Again: Part II
Part I, II, III, IV, V. Before us are the observations X1 to X156. Recall we are assuming that each of these X has been measured without any error. Given…
Posted inStatistics
Let’s Try This Time Series Thing Again: Part I
This series originally began 5 February 2012. Part I, II, III, IV, V. We've gone on and on about how to think about time series, but we are having trouble…
Posted inStatistics
On Global Warming Apoplexy: Temperature Trends
It is a sure sign that Sanity has packed her bags and headed for the door when otherwise sober scientists begin slinging around terms like "denier" and "denialist." Language like…
Posted inStatistics
Bad Astronomer Does Bad Statistics: That Wall Street Journal Editorial
Remember when I said how you shouldn't draw straight lines in time series and then speak of the line as if the line was the data itself? About how the…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
All Of Statistics: Part III
(B) New data It might surprise you, but in classical (both frequentist and Bayesian) practice, if we expect to see new X, the procedure is almost always no different than…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
All Of Statistics: Part II
(A) No new data (cont.) If we want to know how that data arose, and we are not satisfied by X itself, we need to propose a model---a fully causal…