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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part IV (finally the end!)

Read Part I, Part II, Part III. This is the missing Part, which was promised a year ago. We're all tired of this subject, and there are so many other…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part III (update)

Read Part I, Part II. The text has again been expanded and corrected. We have our model in hand. "Has the ability", our model, says (see Part II) that the…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part II (update)

Read Part I: Again, the text (up to this part) has been corrected and expanded. Recall our overarching---our only---goal. We want to know whether the sweet old lady "has the…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part I (updated)

Since the subject arose yesterday, and for other reasons which I'll explain later, I thought we should revisit this series, which ran a year ago. I have edited and expanded…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox Isn’t

Background A paradox is a mistake in thinking; an artificial, human creation which usually arises because a conclusion which follows from a set of beloved premises is itself unloved. Twitter…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Scratch-off Lottery Tickets: Expected Payouts, A Hidden Benefit?

Update See the comments, but thanks to readers' arguments I believe I was wrong in an essential calculation. I've reworked the text to correct my error, which was small in…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Is Cause? — Guest Post by DAV

Regular readers will recognize DAV as a regular contributer whose humorous voice of reason has kept many conversations on target. Today he presents ideas to spur a discussion of causality,…
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Posted inFun

Mathematical Magic Trick: 8 4-Digit Numbers Summing To 35712?

From reader Noble Abraham comes this question: Is it possible to create a pool of distinct four digit numbers, so that the sum of 8 randomly chosen numbers from this…
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  1. John M on The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s FollyMarch 17, 2026

    "How many souls make it to Heaven" is an attribute that can't be expressed with variable data.

  2. Brian (bulaoren) on The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s FollyMarch 17, 2026

    As it happens, Stephen Pinker and I were at the same university, around the same time. No, I don't recall…

  3. bob sykes on The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s FollyMarch 17, 2026

    Humanism might be a better guide, if you are a high-IQ Greek philospher like Aristotle, or even Nietzsche. But for…

  4. Uncle Mike on The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s FollyMarch 17, 2026

    "...the only metric that matters is how many souls make it to Heaven..." This metric is tough to measure. There's…

  5. JH on The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s FollyMarch 17, 2026

    What Pinker missed was that if a religion is true, then living by its tenets is best. What does it…

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