If you're an academic, you might think the biggest mistake in science is failing to win the grant, and thus lose the power to calm the Savage Powers that demand…

This is the most in-depth, complicated Class yet. But it has everything. Every probability problem turns out to be just like asking Pr(Dice loaded|Evidence). I hope you stick by this…

I didn't believe it when I first heard the most perfect conspiracy theory. You won't either. Who would? But once I did hear, I searched, because that is what good…

Via Alexander Bogomolny: At 1 minute to midnight 10 apples fall into a sack. The same happens at half a minute to midnight, then at a quarter minute to midnight,…

Do not conduct or trust any regression, or any probability model, before you understand what "control" means and does NOT mean. NO CLASS NEXT WEEK. Video https://youtu.be/_ON42EEGrb4 Links: YouTube *…

The title is lifted from an email I received, one of many asking me to look into the paper "A calibration of nucleic acid (PCR) by antibody (IgG) tests in…

All uses of hypothesis testing are fallacies. The results could be true, or likely, but only accidentally. A proof based on the Resurrection and GPA. Bonus Song Anon sent in…