The best model is no model! Display your data instead. We bring cause to models, we do not extract cause from models. Models do not say what happened: what happened…

This week starts Part II of the Class: scientific modeling, in all its glories and, alas, failures. Science is model happy, and judges too often the goodess of models by…

Please read this post on the site (click the title) if you have difficulty reading it in the email. Elon Muck infamously pitched a fit last week over his frustration…

Most forget their parameterized models are ad hoc, and so fret about how to put uncertainty on the parameters. Hence the cheerful reception of De Finetti's representation theory. WARNING for…

This is a revamped and updated classic post with new material. It first appeared on 6 February 2020. It's time to revisit this topic, as we'll see below. Polygenic scores…

If you have trouble viewing this in the email, please click the title and read it on my site. This one was too much fun, so I hope you will…

Laplace infamously calculated the probability, given his evidence, the sun would rise in the east tomorrow at (something like) 0.9999995. Many objected, saying it's much higher. Who was right? Laplace!…

Unobservable parameters abound in probability models. Why? Where do they come from? Are they needed? This is our first hardcore math lesson. You must read the written lesson today. WARNING…