Posted inStatistics
Class 60: Does This Guy Have ESP? 1
A guy correctly "sees" 4 cards out of 52. A wee P hypothesis test says he has psychic powers. Does he? We only begin this difficult question today. Video https://youtu.be/_mgOCfEkIWQ…
Posted inStatistics
Class 59: The Hardest Hypothesis In The World
A lady says she has the ability to identify whether tea or milk is poured in a cup first. What does "have the ability mean?" and why is it so…
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Class 58: Hypothesis Testing Is All Wrong
We want Pr(Hypothesis true|Evidence) but get Pr(Data we didn't see | Hypothesis false). This makes no sense, but I promise that is what is done. My friends, it gets real…
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Jung’s Synchronicity & Coincidence
A coincidence, or co-incidents, as we have discussed, is the joining together of two or more events that stick in your mind and call out for a causal connection. Here…
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Class 57: The Second Best Model
We want Pr(Y|X) where Y is a question about the world and X all/everything/in toto of what we assume is probative. That's not what we get usually. But we should!…
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Don’t Lose Sleep Over Research On “Climate Change” & Sleep Apnea
Here's the propaganda headline: "Climate change is making it harder for us to sleep: Study". Which cannot be believed. Yet if they would have said "Climate change research making it…
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Test Your IQ With These Puzzles! (Not So Easy!)
Here in this Fun Fourth run up are some puzzles to tease out your "IQ". Only those with high "IQ"s will get them, so beware! Try them all first before…
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How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?
Since this is typically the slowest week of the year---even Christmas is busier---this is a good time to introduce something strange. About twenty years ago I wrote a skeptical (do…