Search Results for “probability” – Page 34

All Of The Supposed Paradoxes About The Principle Of Indifference Are Bogus

Here is an example of a supposed paradox caused by using Keyne's Principle of Indifference, which Stove and others (and myself) call the Statistical Syllogism (itself deduced from the symmetry…

Statistics

You Can’t Predict The Unpredictable

There is, or might even not be, some BAD THING ahead of us. I don't know what it is, and you don't know what it is, and nobody knows what…

Philosophy Statistics

Reality-Based Probability & Statistics: Ending The Tyranny Of Parameters!

Here it is! The one, the only, the peer-reviewed (and therefore true) "Reality-Based Probability & Statistics: Solving the Evidential Crisis" (the link is to the pdf, which is 11 MB;…

Statistics

Bayes Theorem and Coronavirus: The Chance You Have It & The Chance You Die

I didn't have a chance to put this in yesterday's update, but I've been asked to do it. It's a classic in every 101 biostat textbook to do Bayes theorem…

Philosophy Statistics

Yep, Probability Is Not As Simple As You Think

Couple of folks (Mike W, Dan Hughes) asked me to comment on the article "The concept of probability is not as simple as you think" by Nevin Climenhaga. Three popular…

Statistics

New Paper: Parameter-Centric Analysis Grossly Exaggerates Certainty

By moi as well. Paper link. Abstract: The reason probability models are used is to characterize uncertainty in observables. Typically, certainty in the parameters of fitted models based on their…

Fun

Blog Year In Review: Top 10 Reader & My Favorites

Tune in tomorrow to make your 2020 predictions! Results for 2019 coming Thursday. Reader Favorites Here were the Top 10 reader favorite posts of 2019, in which the numbers surprised…

Statistics

Taleb Chastises Calm Journalist, Advises Precautionary Panic To Coronavirus

Background Some blue check journalist named Ferris Jabr, in a raw display of sobriety for a member of the Indigo Cheka, said None of this is to belittle what is…

spetzer86 on The Sad End Of RadioJuly 7, 2025
If you'd like a wide selection of radio stations from around the world: https://radio.garden/visit/tefe-am/JSbjvYLx is pretty fun. It's always amazing…
Briggs on The Unseen Bias In All ScienceJuly 7, 2025
bruce, Absolutely nowhere will you find me "rejecting" IQ. The opposite is the case. I go out of my way,…
bruce g charlton on The Unseen Bias In All ScienceJuly 7, 2025
@WMB - I think you are off on a false trail here. Using "not perfect" as a reason for rejecting…
MikeW on The Sad End Of RadioJuly 7, 2025
Radio is not ending sadly. It is happily transitioning to internet streaming radio. My favorite is the Instrumental Channel on…
C-Marie on The Sad End Of RadioJuly 6, 2025
Right on, Brian (bulaoren)!! It has never been the same without Rush!! God bless, C-Marie