Search Results for “probability” – Page 4

How “The Science” Is Created By Not Understanding Belief & Decision Are Not Uncertainty & Probability

Stick with me on this not-so-easy subject, because I'm going to reveal a trick used to make you "Follow the Science!" Belief is an act. Uncertainty is a state. Decision…

Statistics

Probability Doesn’t Exist: Nothing Has A Probability

I hope you'll forgive this minor repetition, my friends. But since the world has not yet converted to the truth, shouted by de Finetti and handful of others, that probability…

Philosophy Statistics

The Frequency Interpretation Of Probability Is False: Some Reasons Contra von Mises

What is the chance that "Donald Trump wins the 2024 Presidential election"? Impossible to say, says Richard von Mises, because the event is singular and must be embedded in an…

Statistics

The Probability Of A Head In A Coin Flip Is 1, Not 1/2

My dad and I built a coin flipping machine. Then made this video (you might have to click the link): LINK FIXED. Link, because the embedding is not working. https://youtu.be/8XX0iRAN--8…

Philosophy Statistics

There Is No Problem Of Old Evidence In Bayesian Probability

Rationalists, like those at Less Wrong (think Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Alexander), are prone to fetishsize Bayes theorem, seeing it as the key to all thought. It isn't. Bayes is…

Statistics

Nothing Has A Probability: Roulette Wheel Pays Off

There are two essential, crucial things to take from the article "The Gambler Who Beat Roulette", and I beg that you will remember both: 1. You are meant to lose…

Philosophy

On The Logical Probability Of The Truth Of Mathematical Theorems

I was reading through some of James Franklin's papers on logical probability in an effort to not embarrass myself when I make my speech at the Broken Science Initiative event…

Philosophy

Reader Question: Probability is not real in the sense that real life things are real

Anon writes: Mr. Briggs, I am trying to understand the statement in the title. It [probability] is a measure of uncertainty. It is a measure of what we know or…

Al on On That “Bombshell German Study” That “Exposes the PCR Test Fraud That Locked Down the World”November 18, 2025
It wasn’t a blunder.
Williis Eschenbach on Why Study Probability?November 18, 2025
John, you seem to be operating under the misunderstanding that I asked you a question or that I care about…
Johnno on Masking Morality With Science: Men Pretending To Be Women In SportsNovember 17, 2025
What is to be done? Accelerate it! Let the transgenders march through all the women's institutions to outcompete and purge…
Johnno on In Which An Atheist Becomes Sputteringly Angry Over Theist’s ArgumentNovember 17, 2025
Well Cary, the problem is that before you see God we are all very certain you are going to spend…
John Pate on Why Study Probability?November 17, 2025
Willis, I'm trying to get you to think differently, not be antagonistic... although my sister says I'm "on the spectrum"…