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Probability Doesn’t Exist: Nothing Has A Probability
Posted inStatistics

Probability Doesn’t Exist: Nothing Has A Probability

I hope you'll forgive this minor repetition, my friends. But since the world has not yet converted to the truth, shouted by de Finetti and handful of others, that probability…
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The Frequency Interpretation Of Probability Is False: Some Reasons Contra von Mises
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Frequency Interpretation Of Probability Is False: Some Reasons Contra von Mises

What is the chance that "Donald Trump wins the 2024 Presidential election"? Impossible to say, says Richard von Mises, because the event is singular and must be embedded in an…
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The Probability Of A Head In A Coin Flip Is 1, Not 1/2
Posted inStatistics

The Probability Of A Head In A Coin Flip Is 1, Not 1/2

My dad and I built a coin flipping machine. Then made this video (you might have to click the link): LINK FIXED. Link, because the embedding is not working. https://youtu.be/8XX0iRAN--8…
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There Is No Problem Of Old Evidence In Bayesian Probability
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

There Is No Problem Of Old Evidence In Bayesian Probability

Rationalists, like those at Less Wrong (think Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Alexander), are prone to fetishsize Bayes theorem, seeing it as the key to all thought. It isn't. Bayes is…
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Nothing Has A Probability: Roulette Wheel Pays Off
Posted inStatistics

Nothing Has A Probability: Roulette Wheel Pays Off

There are two essential, crucial things to take from the article "The Gambler Who Beat Roulette", and I beg that you will remember both: 1. You are meant to lose…
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On The Logical Probability Of The Truth Of Mathematical Theorems
Posted inPhilosophy

On The Logical Probability Of The Truth Of Mathematical Theorems

I was reading through some of James Franklin's papers on logical probability in an effort to not embarrass myself when I make my speech at the Broken Science Initiative event…
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Reader Question: Probability is not real in the sense that real life things are real
Posted inPhilosophy

Reader Question: Probability is not real in the sense that real life things are real

Anon writes: Mr. Briggs, I am trying to understand the statement in the title. It [probability] is a measure of uncertainty. It is a measure of what we know or…
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Top Scientists Plead For Someone To Calculate The Probability Of The End Of The World
Posted inStatistics

Top Scientists Plead For Someone To Calculate The Probability Of The End Of The World

Here's how the AP climate doom article starts: Experts are ignoring the worst possible climate change catastrophic scenarios, including collapse of society or the potential extinction of humans, however unlikely,…
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  1. C-Marie on At What Point Does Transsexualism Become A Conservative Value?October 21, 2025

    "...being born wrong” Has anyone asked what being born has to do with one's sexuality??? "A zygote forms when sperm…

  2. Cary Cotterman on At What Point Does Transsexualism Become A Conservative Value?October 21, 2025

    Jeff, I used to listen to Dennis Prager quite a bit, and I've heard him condemn pornography at length several…

  3. Cary Cotterman on At What Point Does Transsexualism Become A Conservative Value?October 21, 2025

    As far back as I can remember, to around late toddlerhood, I was always drawn to girls, even long before…

  4. JerryR on At What Point Does Transsexualism Become A Conservative Value?October 21, 2025

    I have a question: what does it mean to be conservative? I always considered conservative to be truth. So what…

  5. jeff on At What Point Does Transsexualism Become A Conservative Value?October 21, 2025

    I understand your main point - the transexual contagion served to shift the conservative defense to the left leaving homosexuality…

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