Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Probability is Logic
I was reading a draft of a book our own Fr John Rickert's is working on. Visual Logic: Seeing Classical and Modern Logic: An Introduction, a neat little handbook showing…
Posted inStatistics
Proof Probability & Statistics & AI Don’t Discover Cause
Everybody has read, or seen adaptations of, Bram Stocker's documentation of Dracula, the undead count, unlate of Transylvania. From these pages and films, we all know how to kill a…
Posted inStatistics
Local & Necessary Truths In Mathematical Proofs — And Probability
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pp06oGD4m00 This video requires little math beyond what used to be taught in college. Its speaker is Terry Tao, who some say is the world's best living mathematician. Its (fun---truly)…
Posted inClass Statistics
Probability Thought Experiment With NNT: Reader Question
From reader Ernst, this interesting probability/statistics question. First, NNT = number needed to treat, which is, stealing from this site to save time, "The Number Needed to Treat (NNT) is…
Posted inStatistics
On Cause In Probability Models
Note This post originally ran 11 June 2019 under the title "When Cause Is Not A Cause -- Another Anti-P-Value Argument". The post itself is extracted and modified from this…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Subjective Probability Is Objective
Because certain forms of Bayesian probability, particularly so-called subjective probability, are being taken up in quantum mechanics, it's well to understand just what subjective probability is, if it's anything, and…
Posted inClass Statistics
When Does A Small Probability Mean Impossibility?
Question from reader Richard Stevens: A professional scientist, holding an MS in one of the hard sciences, addressed the argument that the probability of creating a protein or an enzyme…
Posted inStatistics
What’s The Probability Of A Nuclear War?
For readers in a hurry, here's the answer: There is no probability of a nuclear war. Nor of a conventional one. Nor even of you being victor in your next…
