Search Results for “probability” – Page 52

Gambler’s Fallacy Not As Crazy As Mathematician’s Fallacy

A new walks-into-a-bar joke begins (thanks to reader Kip Hansen for the tip): A mathematician, a philosopher and a gambler walk into a bar. As the barman pulls each of…

Statistics

Climate Attribution Studies Can’t Be Trusted — New Paper

THE SKY HAS FALLEN Benny Peiser at the Global Warming Policy Foundation asked me to investigate so-called climate attribution studies. I did. They don't work. Since that's too brief a…

Statistics

Breaking: Wind From Tropical Cyclones Cure Hemorrhoids

Lost count of the number of "studies" that feel---not think---that they must invoke terror to justify their undertaking. Take this peer-reviewed gem from Nature Communications by Robbie M. Parks and…

Podcast

Patrick Coffin Show: How You Can Tell They’re Lying About Covid—Dr. William M. Briggs

Patrick was kind enough to have me on his podcast. Here's his show notes (his title too): #223: How You Can Tell They’re Lying About Covid—Dr. William M. Briggs “There…

Statistics

Why Simple Models Are Better Than Complex In Finance, Climate, Coronadoom & More

Right after yesterday's post on (again) why rationalism and reason fail as philosophies, and on their severe limitations, I read an article profiling Gerd Gigerenzer and his "simple rules". It…

Philosophy

Cognitive Bayes & Rationality: Why Theoretical Explanations Charging People With Conspiracy Theories Fails

Fun quiz time! This is some data: x = c(0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1). Something caused that data to be. I know what it is,…

Philosophy Statistics

Dear Quacks & Experts: Your Loss Function Is Not Our Loss Function

Note to the colleague who wrote me. I lost your email! You asked excellent questions about the post Classical Statistics Has Outlived Its Usefulness: Here’s The Fix, which I meant…

Philosophy Statistics

Why (Scott Alexander’s) Bayesian Rationality Fails

Scott Alexander, late of Slate Star Codex, and New York Times doxee, is the subject of Curtis Yarvin nee Moldbug's latest. Rather, Alexander's (and Moldbug's? see postscript) Bayesian rationality is.…

shawn marshall on Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The WarApril 6, 2026
i never watch Hannity or Fox. I'm afraid you misapprehend the fatalistic Shia eschatology. Your flippancy and arrogance are indicative…
Tars Tarkas on Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The WarApril 6, 2026
Hey Shawn Marshall, stop watching Hannity and grow up. WTF do "mullahs" in Iran have to do with us? How…
shawn marshall on Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The WarApril 6, 2026
I do pray that the Iranians will be freed from the Mullahs who I do believe want to fashion a…
Johnno on Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb PeopleApril 2, 2026
Has this Pierre perhaps considered that it is the light of Belgian criminal law and more specifically the anti-racism law…
Johnno on There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft MenApril 2, 2026
God already foresaw all this. He warned us so in 1916 and provided a solution since 1929, in the run…