Search Results for “probability” – Page 53

Patrick Coffin Show: How You Can Tell They’re Lying About Covid—Dr. William M. Briggs

Patrick was kind enough to have me on his podcast. Here's his show notes (his title too): #223: How You Can Tell They’re Lying About Covid—Dr. William M. Briggs “There…

Statistics

Why Simple Models Are Better Than Complex In Finance, Climate, Coronadoom & More

Right after yesterday's post on (again) why rationalism and reason fail as philosophies, and on their severe limitations, I read an article profiling Gerd Gigerenzer and his "simple rules". It…

Philosophy

Cognitive Bayes & Rationality: Why Theoretical Explanations Charging People With Conspiracy Theories Fails

Fun quiz time! This is some data: x = c(0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1). Something caused that data to be. I know what it is,…

Philosophy Statistics

Dear Quacks & Experts: Your Loss Function Is Not Our Loss Function

Note to the colleague who wrote me. I lost your email! You asked excellent questions about the post Classical Statistics Has Outlived Its Usefulness: Here’s The Fix, which I meant…

Philosophy Statistics

Why (Scott Alexander’s) Bayesian Rationality Fails

Scott Alexander, late of Slate Star Codex, and New York Times doxee, is the subject of Curtis Yarvin nee Moldbug's latest. Rather, Alexander's (and Moldbug's? see postscript) Bayesian rationality is.…

Philosophy Statistics

Classical Statistics Has Outlived Its Usefulness: Here’s The Fix

A PDF of this article may be downloaded here. This article is a precis of Uncertainty. Opening Act Patient walks into the doctor and says, "Doc, I saw that new…

Statistics

Disproving Kossin’s Increasing Hurricane Intensity Claims: Update — Guest Post by Greg Kent

Editor's note I have strong views on statistical "significance", confidence intervals, p-values, and all that, finding them harmful and worse. However, Kossin used these concepts, and a criticism of his…

Statistics

UK Madness Level Turned To 11: Coronavirus Upate XLVIII

THE UK https://twitter.com/Albion_Rover/status/1348600356754903040 I said last week "The UK has lost its mind." They have moved to Madness Level 11 since then, proposing allowing people outside only once per week,…

Economist Says the Quiet Part Out Loud: High Energy Prices are ‘Good for the Climate’ | Progress with God on The Consensus That Wasn’t: Less Than 1%, Not 97%April 26, 2026
[…] economist would recognise as market-based. Yet we are told, with straight faces, that the ‘97% consensus‘ demands we accept…
John Pate on Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not PayApril 23, 2026
Ovarian Logic has no relationship to, and is not amenable to, formal logic or considerations of causality and empirical observation.…
C-Marie on Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not PayApril 22, 2026
Well, skin colour is given by God to each of us. And, Jesus Christ is the only Saviour. Let us…
Brian (bulaoren) on Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not PayApril 22, 2026
@Cary I'm not sure what a "Martian giant" is... Elon Musk? I tried Google but all I found was a…
John M on Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not PayApril 22, 2026
Liberalism Is a Mental Disorder by Michael Savage, ISBN 1-59555-006-2