Search Results for “probability” – Page 54

Gambler’s Fallacy Not As Crazy As Mathematician’s Fallacy

A new walks-into-a-bar joke begins (thanks to reader Kip Hansen for the tip): A mathematician, a philosopher and a gambler walk into a bar. As the barman pulls each of…

Statistics

Climate Attribution Studies Can’t Be Trusted — New Paper

THE SKY HAS FALLEN Benny Peiser at the Global Warming Policy Foundation asked me to investigate so-called climate attribution studies. I did. They don't work. Since that's too brief a…

Statistics

Breaking: Wind From Tropical Cyclones Cure Hemorrhoids

Lost count of the number of "studies" that feel---not think---that they must invoke terror to justify their undertaking. Take this peer-reviewed gem from Nature Communications by Robbie M. Parks and…

Podcast

Patrick Coffin Show: How You Can Tell They’re Lying About Covid—Dr. William M. Briggs

Patrick was kind enough to have me on his podcast. Here's his show notes (his title too): #223: How You Can Tell They’re Lying About Covid—Dr. William M. Briggs “There…

Statistics

Why Simple Models Are Better Than Complex In Finance, Climate, Coronadoom & More

Right after yesterday's post on (again) why rationalism and reason fail as philosophies, and on their severe limitations, I read an article profiling Gerd Gigerenzer and his "simple rules". It…

Philosophy

Cognitive Bayes & Rationality: Why Theoretical Explanations Charging People With Conspiracy Theories Fails

Fun quiz time! This is some data: x = c(0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1). Something caused that data to be. I know what it is,…

Philosophy Statistics

Dear Quacks & Experts: Your Loss Function Is Not Our Loss Function

Note to the colleague who wrote me. I lost your email! You asked excellent questions about the post Classical Statistics Has Outlived Its Usefulness: Here’s The Fix, which I meant…

Philosophy Statistics

Why (Scott Alexander’s) Bayesian Rationality Fails

Scott Alexander, late of Slate Star Codex, and New York Times doxee, is the subject of Curtis Yarvin nee Moldbug's latest. Rather, Alexander's (and Moldbug's? see postscript) Bayesian rationality is.…

MikeW on Climate Change Increases Risk of Even Slower World Cup Games!June 13, 2026
Due to the threat of Climate Change of Doom, the soccer industry has been forced to insert a 3-minute "hydration…
John M on Climate Change Increases Risk of Even Slower World Cup Games!June 11, 2026
The picture on the video link shows how boring the game is. There are so many people yawning and a…
_Jim on How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain PowerJune 11, 2026
re: "How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain Power" Having skimmed the above post, I realize my…
_Jim on How High an IQ Must A Person Have To Be Executed?June 11, 2026
re: "The only question is capacity to recognize guilt. If the perpetrator was allowed to vote in national elections, the…
_Jim on The Ultimate IQ Test: Guessing the Author’s Mind and Escaping the Infinity of AnswersJune 10, 2026
One gains a better understanding of the underpinnings of the grist (the extensions to the 'maths') behind QM (Quantum Mechanics)…