Evidence for an event cannot be the horrific consequences of that event. Suppose we're interested in the probability of a Y = "Horrific plague". Since nothing has a probability, we…

Background Some blue check journalist named Ferris Jabr, in a raw display of sobriety for a member of the Indigo Cheka, said None of this is to belittle what is…

By moi as well. Paper link. Abstract: The reason probability models are used is to characterize uncertainty in observables. Typically, certainty in the parameters of fitted models based on their…

Find by general acclaim the smartest man in the world. Call this man "Group A". Call everybody else "Group B". There will necessarily be a group difference in mean intelligence,…

Paper link. By moi. Abstract: There is no reason to use traditional hypothesis testing. If one's goal is to assess past performance of a model, then a simple measure or…

The peer-reviewed paper is "Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale" by Sippel and Knutti an others in Nature: Climate Change. Look at that…