Search Results for “probability” – Page 55

Gambler’s Fallacy Not As Crazy As Mathematician’s Fallacy

A new walks-into-a-bar joke begins (thanks to reader Kip Hansen for the tip): A mathematician, a philosopher and a gambler walk into a bar. As the barman pulls each of…

Statistics

Climate Attribution Studies Can’t Be Trusted — New Paper

THE SKY HAS FALLEN Benny Peiser at the Global Warming Policy Foundation asked me to investigate so-called climate attribution studies. I did. They don't work. Since that's too brief a…

Statistics

Breaking: Wind From Tropical Cyclones Cure Hemorrhoids

Lost count of the number of "studies" that feel---not think---that they must invoke terror to justify their undertaking. Take this peer-reviewed gem from Nature Communications by Robbie M. Parks and…

Podcast

Patrick Coffin Show: How You Can Tell They’re Lying About Covid—Dr. William M. Briggs

Patrick was kind enough to have me on his podcast. Here's his show notes (his title too): #223: How You Can Tell They’re Lying About Covid—Dr. William M. Briggs “There…

Statistics

Why Simple Models Are Better Than Complex In Finance, Climate, Coronadoom & More

Right after yesterday's post on (again) why rationalism and reason fail as philosophies, and on their severe limitations, I read an article profiling Gerd Gigerenzer and his "simple rules". It…

Philosophy

Cognitive Bayes & Rationality: Why Theoretical Explanations Charging People With Conspiracy Theories Fails

Fun quiz time! This is some data: x = c(0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1). Something caused that data to be. I know what it is,…

Philosophy Statistics

Dear Quacks & Experts: Your Loss Function Is Not Our Loss Function

Note to the colleague who wrote me. I lost your email! You asked excellent questions about the post Classical Statistics Has Outlived Its Usefulness: Here’s The Fix, which I meant…

Philosophy Statistics

Why (Scott Alexander’s) Bayesian Rationality Fails

Scott Alexander, late of Slate Star Codex, and New York Times doxee, is the subject of Curtis Yarvin nee Moldbug's latest. Rather, Alexander's (and Moldbug's? see postscript) Bayesian rationality is.…

Cary Cotterman on Do Dogs Poop In Alignment With The Earth’s Magnetic Field?September 3, 2026
More than seventy years of experience with dog ownership has made the fact clear to me that dogs squat pointing…
Uncle Mike on Do Dogs Poop In Alignment With The Earth’s Magnetic Field?September 3, 2026
The afterstory: three of the authors are now university presidents, and one is head of NSA.
shawn marshall on Do Dogs Poop In Alignment With The Earth’s Magnetic Field?September 3, 2026
for sure you have identified a scienterrific study full of dog poop
Brian (bulaoren) on Do Dogs Poop In Alignment With The Earth’s Magnetic Field?September 3, 2026
Well, a lot of current research product orients toward the left.
McChuck on Do Dogs Poop In Alignment With The Earth’s Magnetic Field?September 3, 2026
Perhaps the dogs prefer not to stare into the morning and evening sun? How does one measure the "calmness" of…