Search Results for “probability” – Page 56

Patrick Coffin Show: How You Can Tell They’re Lying About Covid—Dr. William M. Briggs

Patrick was kind enough to have me on his podcast. Here's his show notes (his title too): #223: How You Can Tell They’re Lying About Covid—Dr. William M. Briggs “There…

Statistics

Why Simple Models Are Better Than Complex In Finance, Climate, Coronadoom & More

Right after yesterday's post on (again) why rationalism and reason fail as philosophies, and on their severe limitations, I read an article profiling Gerd Gigerenzer and his "simple rules". It…

Philosophy

Cognitive Bayes & Rationality: Why Theoretical Explanations Charging People With Conspiracy Theories Fails

Fun quiz time! This is some data: x = c(0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1). Something caused that data to be. I know what it is,…

Philosophy Statistics

Dear Quacks & Experts: Your Loss Function Is Not Our Loss Function

Note to the colleague who wrote me. I lost your email! You asked excellent questions about the post Classical Statistics Has Outlived Its Usefulness: Here’s The Fix, which I meant…

Philosophy Statistics

Why (Scott Alexander’s) Bayesian Rationality Fails

Scott Alexander, late of Slate Star Codex, and New York Times doxee, is the subject of Curtis Yarvin nee Moldbug's latest. Rather, Alexander's (and Moldbug's? see postscript) Bayesian rationality is.…

Philosophy Statistics

Classical Statistics Has Outlived Its Usefulness: Here’s The Fix

A PDF of this article may be downloaded here. This article is a precis of Uncertainty. Opening Act Patient walks into the doctor and says, "Doc, I saw that new…

Statistics

Disproving Kossin’s Increasing Hurricane Intensity Claims: Update — Guest Post by Greg Kent

Editor's note I have strong views on statistical "significance", confidence intervals, p-values, and all that, finding them harmful and worse. However, Kossin used these concepts, and a criticism of his…

Statistics

UK Madness Level Turned To 11: Coronavirus Upate XLVIII

THE UK https://twitter.com/Albion_Rover/status/1348600356754903040 I said last week "The UK has lost its mind." They have moved to Madness Level 11 since then, proposing allowing people outside only once per week,…

BDavi52 on Sexual Assault Galore At CornellOctober 12, 2026
You ask, "Why would anybody take a survey with such a slippery and indefensible list of questions seriously?” The answer…
CorkyAgain on Sexual Assault Galore At CornellOctober 12, 2026
"how much sexual assault and harassment they enjoyed" Unless you're being snide (hardly unexpected), "enjoyed" should probably be "endured".
Brian (bulaoren) on Sexual Assault Galore At CornellOctober 12, 2026
PS... I am regretting my use of the word "Unencumbered". I should of used Kamala Harris's term; "Unburdned". Madame Harris…
Cary Cotterman on Sexual Assault Galore At CornellOctober 12, 2026
When I was twenty-two, and a bit drunk at a party, I kissed a woman I was not in a…
Brian (bulaoren) on Sexual Assault Galore At CornellOctober 12, 2026
Something today's women fail to recognize is that though a high body-count may make a male seem "Alpha" , that…