Posted inPhilosophy
What Does It Mean To Assess Risk Wrong? Coronadoom Example
There is, as de Finetti said, no such thing as probability. So there is no such thing as risk, either, since risk relies upon probability. If there is no such…
Posted inCulture
Sit Still — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
The hardest thing for any (sane) man to do is to sit still and take it like a real man. Especially when the 'it' is delivered by a shrieking witch.…
Posted inPhilosophy
The Physicist Brian Greene Does Not Exist — And Neither Do You — If The Nonexistent Greene Is Right
The excerpt of a collection of sounds from a thing which is called Brian Greene, but which isn't, is here: https://twitter.com/newscientist/status/1247891248783831047 The full "interview", which isn't really an interview, because…
Posted inStatistics
Coronavirus Update XXV: The Suppression Of Hydroxychloroquine & Other Conspiracies
The first section of this are fun conspiracies to highlight the political crisis. The second section are the numbers showing the medical crisis is over. The third section discusses the…
Posted inStatistics
AI Getting Too Good At Predicting Crime, So It’s Being Purged
If all we know about an American male is that he is an American male, we can use data on observed rates American males committed crimes to predict that this…
Posted inStatistics
Coronavirus Update XXI: Calm Down! Record Testing Is Why There Are Record “Cases”
OHNOWE'REALLGOINGTODIE---AGAIN! Look at this plot, the number of daily COVID tests in the US, according to the COVID-19 tracking project. So far, since the start of the insanity, there have…
Posted inStatistics
Z-Scores Are Misleading & Create Panic: Or, How Not To Compare Pandemics
A number of people panicked to the point their minds have turned to quivering jelly, angry at my calmness, have been emailing and tweeting me the equivalent of "Oh yeah,…
Posted inStatistics
Coronavirus Update XI — Robbing The Cemeteries To Pad Death Totals
All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update…