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New Research: “We know the jail system harms the public rather than keeping us safe”
Posted inStatistics

New Research: “We know the jail system harms the public rather than keeping us safe”

Sandhya Kajeepeta, who, like myself, boasts of a "(grating) Michigan accent", tweeted "We know the jail system harms the public rather than keeping us safe. In this new @AMJPublicHealth paper…
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The Only Thing That Has Fat Tails Are Rappers: More On The PP Fallacy
Posted inStatistics

The Only Thing That Has Fat Tails Are Rappers: More On The PP Fallacy

Evidence for an event cannot be the horrific consequences of that event. Suppose we're interested in the probability of a Y = "Horrific plague". Since nothing has a probability, we…
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Taleb Chastises Calm Journalist, Advises Precautionary Panic To Coronavirus
Posted inStatistics

Taleb Chastises Calm Journalist, Advises Precautionary Panic To Coronavirus

Background Some blue check journalist named Ferris Jabr, in a raw display of sobriety for a member of the Indigo Cheka, said None of this is to belittle what is…
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New Paper: Parameter-Centric Analysis Grossly Exaggerates Certainty
Posted inStatistics

New Paper: Parameter-Centric Analysis Grossly Exaggerates Certainty

By moi as well. Paper link. Abstract: The reason probability models are used is to characterize uncertainty in observables. Typically, certainty in the parameters of fitted models based on their…
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That Cofnas Paper On Research On Group Differences In Intelligence
Posted inStatistics

That Cofnas Paper On Research On Group Differences In Intelligence

Find by general acclaim the smartest man in the world. Call this man "Group A". Call everybody else "Group B". There will necessarily be a group difference in mean intelligence,…
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New Paper: Don’t Test, Decide — Updated: Now With Paper Link!
Posted inStatistics

New Paper: Don’t Test, Decide — Updated: Now With Paper Link!

Paper link. By moi. Abstract: There is no reason to use traditional hypothesis testing. If one's goal is to assess past performance of a model, then a simple measure or…
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On That Climate-Change-Now-Detectable-From-Any-Single-Day-Of-Weather Paper
Posted inStatistics

On That Climate-Change-Now-Detectable-From-Any-Single-Day-Of-Weather Paper

The peer-reviewed paper is "Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale" by Sippel and Knutti an others in Nature: Climate Change. Look at that…
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How’d We Do On Our 2019 Predictions?
Posted inCulture Fun

How’d We Do On Our 2019 Predictions?

A strong no prize this year. Nobody did well enough. Not enough specific predictions, or those that were specific did not come to pass. Doom predictions are too easy: they…
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  1. R W Pearson on On Not ReadingMarch 16, 2026

    Good to hear you are an avid reader, Professor Briggs. The word processor gave us the boat anchor novel, and…

  2. James on Lancet Discovers Public Health Is PoliticsMarch 16, 2026

    Why is a BRITISH journal (The Lancet) complaining about the US medical establishment? And given the current political establishment in…

  3. bruce g charlton on Lancet Discovers Public Health Is PoliticsMarch 16, 2026

    As I have been saying for a couple of decades; science is dead (as a social institution) - but *medical*…

  4. JR Ewing on Lancet Discovers Public Health Is PoliticsMarch 16, 2026

    "For these crimes, our rulers paid no price. Not directly." ----------------------- It depresses me when I think about it, so…

  5. NLR on On Not ReadingMarch 15, 2026

    quote from Idonotreadcomments: "everything men create is derivative of what came before us. There are no stories that have not…

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