Search Results for “probability” – Page 94

Journal Bans Wee P-values—And Confidence Intervals! Break Out The Champagne!

Well, it banned all p-values, wee or not. And confidence intervals! The journal of Basic and Applied Social Psychology, that is. Specifically, they axed the "null hypothesis significance testing procedure".…

Fun

Coming Clean On My Global Warming Funding

Since the "Why models run hot" flap started a witch hunt in Congress, I thought I'd give the complete story of my funding for any work of any kind done…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part III

Read Part I, Part II Part III This brings us to the second reason for measuring model goodness. Or rather an incorrect implementation of it. A lot of folks announce…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update

Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I

Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don't need models to…

Statistics

Temperature Grids, Interpolation, And Over-Certainty

A reader writes: I am a fairly new reader of your blog, coming from WattsUpWithThat and reading with delight and frustration your thoughts on statistics and climate. I have a…

Philosophy Statistics

Resolved: Statisticians To Cease Using “Independence”, Change To “Irrelevance”

What's the difference between "independence" and "irrelevance" and why does that difference matter? This typical passage is from The First Course in Probability by Sheldon Ross (p. 87) is lovely…

Statistics

That “1-in-27 Million Chance That Earth’s Record Hot Streak Is Natural” Is Preposterous

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. We met a lot of bad statistics over the years, but this one wins…

Cary D Cotterman on Scientists Seeking To Escape Criticism Run To The Warmth & Comfort Of BlueskyFebruary 24, 2026
They're happier where nobody is smart enough to question authority, nobody has bullshit radar, and everybody kisses their asses.
Steve on Scientists Seeking To Escape Criticism Run To The Warmth & Comfort Of BlueskyFebruary 24, 2026
They are right there have been changes at that platform, now called “X” (which I agree with the authors is…
Brian (bulaoren) on The Loss of Ephemera — Guest Post by The Blonde BombshellFebruary 23, 2026
Do electronically recorded data last after the physical instrumentations of their creation, and preservation, cease to exist? Do they have…
pouncer on The Loss of Ephemera — Guest Post by The Blonde BombshellFebruary 23, 2026
Internet file "bit rot" doesn't wait for our individual deaths. I have a number of thoughts, (that I expressed carefully)…
Cary D Cotterman on The Loss of Ephemera — Guest Post by The Blonde BombshellFebruary 23, 2026
One of my proudest elementary school achievements was when I successfully altered an "F" on the report card my teacher…