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Was Fisher Wrong? Whether Or Not Statistical Models Are Needed
Posted inStatistics

Was Fisher Wrong? Whether Or Not Statistical Models Are Needed

The answer is yes. Or, if you prefer, no. It depends. Here's a long query about the subject from friend-of-the-blog Kevin Gray. Over the years many have disagreed about many…
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CDC Data: Up To 90% Or More Of Americans Already Infected
Posted inStatistics

CDC Data: Up To 90% Or More Of Americans Already Infected

Seen this? That's the number of daily infections reported to the CDC -- which they mistakenly call "cases", but let that pass. The bump up is, as you've heard, caused…
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More Proof Hypothesis Testing Is Wrong & Why The Predictive Method Is The Only Sane Way To Do Statistics
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

More Proof Hypothesis Testing Is Wrong & Why The Predictive Method Is The Only Sane Way To Do Statistics

Here it is, friends, the one complete universal simple function, the only function you will ever need to fit any---I said any---dataset x. And all it takes is one---I said…
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The New CDC Masks Mandate Study Is Not Good
Posted inStatistics

The New CDC Masks Mandate Study Is Not Good

https://twitter.com/ianmSC/status/1442965194150457344 How would you check if mask mandates worked in schools? I can think of only one way. Contrast kids in schools with mandates and in those without. Get them…
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Why Experts Hate Racial Differences In Intelligence
Posted inStatistics

Why Experts Hate Racial Differences In Intelligence

Steve Sailer highlights an interesting new paper on "cognitive ability" and genetic ancestry (which, in an effort to forestall criticism, perhaps, Sailer calls a "scientific paper"). It's "Linear and partially…
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Dreaded Delta; Noble Lies In The Name of Science; No Fly List With Mark of the Vex; More! — Coronavirus Update LXXXIII
Posted inStatistics

Dreaded Delta; Noble Lies In The Name of Science; No Fly List With Mark of the Vex; More! — Coronavirus Update LXXXIII

MUCH MORE THAN WE CAN DO There is so much material this week I can't include it all in one update. It would grow far too long. If it can…
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How Predictive Statistics Can Help Alleviate, But Not Eliminate, The Reproducibility Crisis
Posted inStatistics

How Predictive Statistics Can Help Alleviate, But Not Eliminate, The Reproducibility Crisis

Predictive statistics can help alleviate the Reproducibility Crisis by, in a word, eliminating p-values. And replacing them with superior measures more useful in quantifing the uncertainty present. Below is some,…
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Posted inStatistics

Boris Says Be A Girl For Great Reset; CDC Counts Vaccinated Differently; Kentucky Court Victory; The New HCQ Paper; More! — Coronavirus Update LXXV

JUICING NUMBERS https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1402708260344500226 He who controls the data controls The Science™ (I repeat myself.) WE TOLD YOU SO I don't like recommending long videos, and rarely do it. I recommend…
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  1. shawn marshall on Academics Debate Which Term Best Describes Those Who Love (in that way) Their PillowsNovember 10, 2025

    all I can say is "Oh my" Romans 1: 16-32 I think

  2. Johnno on Little Nate’s Plan To Save The WorldNovember 9, 2025

    Facts and logic are very diverse things. As diverse as peoples, with diverse facts and diverse ways of logicking. Liberal…

  3. Darin Johnson on Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right WayNovember 9, 2025

    Thank you for your answer, Professor. So the prediction interval is useful for predicting the number of failures among the…

  4. Briggs on Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right WayNovember 8, 2025

    Darin, There is no interval around a probability (with esoteric exceptions not of interest to us). All your evidence is…

  5. Darin Johnson on Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right WayNovember 8, 2025

    I'm struggling to extrapolate this to the case when the thing I'm estimating is a probability. Let's say I observe…

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