Search Results for “temperature” – Page 38

The Endangered Species Act & Counterfactual Arguments

Most species that have ever lived on this our glorious planet Earth have been put on permanent hiatus. And by "most" I mean something approaching, but obviously not yet reaching,…

Philosophy Statistics

Causation And Correlation

Our friend Christopher Monckton of Brenchley wrote a piece over at Anthony Watt's place in which he said (Reader KA Rodgers asked me to have a look): CO2 concentration continues…

Statistics

A Survey Of The Perceptions Of Climate Scientists 2013: No Consensus

Earlier this year scientists were given a survey on their opinion of the state of climate science. This was administered by Dennis Bray & Hans von Storch at the Helmholtz…

Philosophy Statistics

Why Falsifiability, Though Flawed, Is Alluring: Part I

A theory is said not to be scientific unless it is falsifiable. This is an understandable definition, but as something philosophically useful it fails because most theories scientists hold are…

Statistics

How To Properly Handle Proxy Time Series Reconstructions

This is all made up data, so as not to hurt anybody's feelings. Also, this is a sketch. Everything can't be done in 700 words. We are interested in the…

Statistics

Scientific Forecasts, Not Scenarios, For Climate Policy—Guest Post by J. Scott Armstrong

The human race has prospered by relying on forecasts that the seasons will follow their usual course, while knowing they will sometimes be better or worse. Are things different now?…

Statistics

(Most) Everything Wrong With Time Series

It came out at my recent meeting that a compilation of everything wrong with time series was in order. A lot of this I've done before, and so, just as…

Philosophy Statistics

Logical Probability Data Analysis, Measurement Error Example

Read the introduction to this first. If you don't, you will be lost, lost, lost. Logical probability answer to B The answer to B follows from A. The picture is…

shawn marshall on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026
I asked Grok to assign probabilities to all the known facts about the Shroud of Turin and then calculate a…
Rudolph Harrier on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026
It's an interesting thought experiment. However, we will never have a practical implementation of the test because it would be…
Briggs on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026
hudbwu, You could be right.
hudbwu on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026
Caution: it may be that intelligence can not be confirmed by any behavioral test. For example, free will can not…
Lucy Tucker on How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)February 5, 2026
I’m ready to give up the right to vote.