Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Replication In Science
Have doubts about the latest finding from researchers? Confused that last week red wine "increased the risk of heart disease" but this week red wine "decreased the risk of heart…
Posted inStatistics
Picking X’s In Regression. The Role Of Relevance. Ithaca Teaching Journal, Day 9
Be sure to first read Statistical Significance Does Not Mean What You Think. Climate Temperature Trends then Regression Is Not What You Think. Climate And Other Examples, as this post…
Posted inStatistics
Regression Is Not What You Think. Climate And Other Examples. Ithaca Teaching Journal, Day 8
Be sure to first read Statistical Significance Does Not Mean What You Think. Climate Temperature Trends, as this post is an extension of it. As yesterday: If y is some…
Posted inCulture Statistics
Wishcasting The End Of The World: Update
Wishcasting is when a forecast or prediction is shaded in the direction the forecaster or predictor wants the event to happen. For example, if you forecast this weekend's weather, you…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
“I Can See The Future!”
The future begins tomorrow. This being so, it doesn't seem especially difficult to say what will happen in that uncertain land. Weathermen, and their noble sisters the weatherwomen, daily dispatch…
Posted inStatistics
Overstretching Climate Change Attribution
Says Camille Parmesan and others, "The biological world is responding rapidly to a changing climate, but attempts to attribute individual impacts to rising greenhouse gases are ill-advised" (from the first…
Posted inStatistics
Chu On These Climate Tipping Points
"Beware the Tipping Point, my son! That little wee thing, the difference it makes! Beware its Connector Theory, and shun Its luminous Balderdash!" With appropriate apologies to the great logician…
Posted inStatistics
Climate Science And Significance: Wall Street Journal Takes On Statistics
Coin Flips and Dice Rolls Doug Keenan has a must-read piece in the Wall Street Journal on the time series analysis of global temperature (Thanks to Randy, Roger, and John…