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Posted inStatistics

Regression Is Not What You Think. Climate And Other Examples. Ithaca Teaching Journal, Day 8

Be sure to first read Statistical Significance Does Not Mean What You Think. Climate Temperature Trends, as this post is an extension of it. As yesterday: If y is some…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Wishcasting The End Of The World: Update

Wishcasting is when a forecast or prediction is shaded in the direction the forecaster or predictor wants the event to happen. For example, if you forecast this weekend's weather, you…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

“I Can See The Future!”

The future begins tomorrow. This being so, it doesn't seem especially difficult to say what will happen in that uncertain land. Weathermen, and their noble sisters the weatherwomen, daily dispatch…
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Posted inStatistics

Overstretching Climate Change Attribution

Says Camille Parmesan and others, "The biological world is responding rapidly to a changing climate, but attempts to attribute individual impacts to rising greenhouse gases are ill-advised" (from the first…
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Posted inStatistics

Chu On These Climate Tipping Points

"Beware the Tipping Point, my son! That little wee thing, the difference it makes! Beware its Connector Theory, and shun Its luminous Balderdash!" With appropriate apologies to the great logician…
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Posted inStatistics

Climate Science And Significance: Wall Street Journal Takes On Statistics

Coin Flips and Dice Rolls Doug Keenan has a must-read piece in the Wall Street Journal on the time series analysis of global temperature (Thanks to Randy, Roger, and John…
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Posted inStatistics

Planet Earth Al Gore Explains ‘Snowmageddon’: Fox News Story

I was quoted by Gene Koprowski in his Fox News story "Planet Earth Al Gore Explains 'Snowmageddon'". (This accounted for the several hundred Google and other search engine redirects to…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Model Selection and the Difficulty of Falsifying Probability Models: Part II

I hope all understand that we are not just discussing statistics and probability models: what is true here is true for all theories/models (mathematics, physics, chemistry, climate, etc.). Read Part…
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