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William M. Briggs

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Model Selection and the Difficulty of Falsifying Probability Models: Part II

I hope all understand that we are not just discussing statistics and probability models: what is true here is true for all theories/models (mathematics, physics, chemistry, climate, etc.). Read Part…
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Posted inStatistics

What Is A “Climate Change Skeptic”? Assist With Definition

As requested by Richard Drake and J Ferguson, who began a conversation on a similar topic last week, this new post asks what is the best "opinion poll-ready definition of…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Ivy League Climate Skeptics

I received this email from Rob Fishman at the Huffington Post. My answer follows. I'm the social media editor here at HuffPost (and a Cornell alum). I came across your…
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Posted inFun

Ecoheroes For the Climate Join Global Warming Superheroes!

Remember Global Warming Superheroes? A site where I---cough, cough---made villain of the day? While glancing through my logs, I was led to Timberati: Reasonably green thoughts. The folks there were…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Classical Statistics Is Like A Criminal Trial

What is A crime has been committed. Evidence---probative background information---points to a list of suspects, a list which, as always, might be incomplete. A most likely candidate is made to…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Is A “Statistically Significant Trend”?

Longtime reader Nate Winchester found a discussion---among the many, many---of global warming data revolving around statistics, from which we take the following snippet: You just do the statistics on the…
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Posted inStatistics

Global Warming Causes Death

Work is catching up to me this week, so today only the briefest of reports, with the promise of a return to regularity after this weekend. Also keep those post…
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Posted inBook review Statistics

The Great Global Warming Blunder by Roy W. Spencer

The Great Global Warming Blunder: How Mother Nature Fooled the World's Top Climate Scientists by Roy W. Spencer This book was given to me for review by the publisher. Clouds…
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  1. John Pate on Whoring For Climate ChangeSeptember 24, 2026

    Until we get back to burning heretics at the stake I don't see any solution to this kind of behaviour.

  2. John Pate on Lady Academics Tire Of Being Judged By Peer ReviewSeptember 24, 2026

    Private companies still run enormous R&D labs but they're funded by black budget "defence" appropriations doing the Devil's work. They…

  3. Cary Cotterman on Whoring For Climate ChangeSeptember 24, 2026

    Brosch and his ilk don't know squat about "scientific facts". They deal in pseudoscientific nonsense.

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    I refuse, on general principles, to use the Left's Newspeak. She is a whore, or prostitute if we're being polite.…

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    "And who better to help relay the urgency of climate change than sex workers? “ I hate the widespread use…

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