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Posted inCulture Statistics

Wishcasting The End Of The World: Update

Wishcasting is when a forecast or prediction is shaded in the direction the forecaster or predictor wants the event to happen. For example, if you forecast this weekend's weather, you…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

“I Can See The Future!”

The future begins tomorrow. This being so, it doesn't seem especially difficult to say what will happen in that uncertain land. Weathermen, and their noble sisters the weatherwomen, daily dispatch…
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Posted inStatistics

Overstretching Climate Change Attribution

Says Camille Parmesan and others, "The biological world is responding rapidly to a changing climate, but attempts to attribute individual impacts to rising greenhouse gases are ill-advised" (from the first…
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Posted inStatistics

Chu On These Climate Tipping Points

"Beware the Tipping Point, my son! That little wee thing, the difference it makes! Beware its Connector Theory, and shun Its luminous Balderdash!" With appropriate apologies to the great logician…
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Posted inStatistics

Climate Science And Significance: Wall Street Journal Takes On Statistics

Coin Flips and Dice Rolls Doug Keenan has a must-read piece in the Wall Street Journal on the time series analysis of global temperature (Thanks to Randy, Roger, and John…
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Posted inStatistics

Planet Earth Al Gore Explains ‘Snowmageddon’: Fox News Story

I was quoted by Gene Koprowski in his Fox News story "Planet Earth Al Gore Explains 'Snowmageddon'". (This accounted for the several hundred Google and other search engine redirects to…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Model Selection and the Difficulty of Falsifying Probability Models: Part II

I hope all understand that we are not just discussing statistics and probability models: what is true here is true for all theories/models (mathematics, physics, chemistry, climate, etc.). Read Part…
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Posted inStatistics

What Is A “Climate Change Skeptic”? Assist With Definition

As requested by Richard Drake and J Ferguson, who began a conversation on a similar topic last week, this new post asks what is the best "opinion poll-ready definition of…
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  1. _Jim on You Can’t Con An Honest Man & The Case of Jason ArdayAugust 14, 2026

    And, just like that, he (apparently) self-exterminates. Found unresponsive and declared deceased where they found him today, Friday the 14th…

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    C-Marie. Look around you. Virtually all the ugly woman who have corrupted the western world in the last 50 years…

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    Every day there's some paper or article claiming that something is good for you, followed the next day by some…

  4. spetzer86 on Sweet Wee Ps Say Sugar Makes You Lose Your MindAugust 13, 2026

    Always fun watching the lectures.

  5. JRob on Sweet Wee Ps Say Sugar Makes You Lose Your MindAugust 13, 2026

    The epidemiologist fallacies are always enjoyable. It seems that there is a rash of scientists now saying that previous scientists…

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