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Coronavirus Update XXIII:  Yes, More Testing Leads to More “New” “Cases”
Posted inStatistics

Coronavirus Update XXIII: Yes, More Testing Leads to More “New” “Cases”

The numbers, the only important part of this article, are in the last section. I heard on the radio the analysis I present is a "lie". Reason? Trump said more…
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Curtis Yarvin’s Plan A for the Coronavirus: A Postmortem — Guest Post by John Q. Public
Posted inStatistics

Curtis Yarvin’s Plan A for the Coronavirus: A Postmortem — Guest Post by John Q. Public

When the N-COVID-19 pandemic struck in earlier this year, the online "dissident Right" was divided between those who saw N-COVID-19 as a unique threat and those who thought the risk…
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The Fifth Column & Coming War On Us — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
Posted inStatistics

The Fifth Column & Coming War On Us — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

I would like to preface this post with the following thought. Never depart for Moscow after the Ides of March. Unless you like Russian winters, of course. Bear with me…
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Coronavirus Radio Replay: And Notes On Welcoming Tyranny
Posted inStatistics

Coronavirus Radio Replay: And Notes On Welcoming Tyranny

I originally had this scheduled for Monday, but shifted to Wednesday because of the z-score mania. So I'm sure there can be many more things to add to this. Last…
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An Egregious Statistical Horror Story — Reprint Of George Gilder Column
Posted inStatistics

An Egregious Statistical Horror Story — Reprint Of George Gilder Column

Used with permission from the original American Institute for Economic Research article. Regular readers: No Doom tomorrow. With the latest reports of plummeting death rates from all causes, this crisis…
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Coronavirus Update XI — Robbing The Cemeteries To Pad Death Totals
Posted inStatistics

Coronavirus Update XI — Robbing The Cemeteries To Pad Death Totals

All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update…
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Should We Have Trusted Expert Epidemiological Models?
Posted inStatistics

Should We Have Trusted Expert Epidemiological Models?

Neil Ferguson and his Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team colleagues scared the world silly in mid-March. They announced they ran a sophisticated epidemiological model which said Doom was on the…
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Coronavirus Update IX: End Game—Will Politicians Double Down On Fear Or End It?
Posted inStatistics

Coronavirus Update IX: End Game—Will Politicians Double Down On Fear Or End It?

All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update…
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  1. JH on A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?March 10, 2026

    The definition of cause can vary, and each incident may have its causes or contributing factors. I see coincidences as…

  2. JH on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026

    AI can be ‘gullible’ because it takes all the information fed into its optimization or backpropagation system. In many tasks,…

  3. Richard on A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?March 9, 2026

    My son-in-law calls these "cosmic coincidences". We share with each other "interesting" or "unusual" ones we've each experienced. Of course,…

  4. Brian (bulaoren) on A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?March 9, 2026

    Funny, I was just thinking about synchronicity...

  5. Jennifer on Class 81: The Second Biggest Error In Time SeriesMarch 7, 2026

    Ran across this and thought you could be interested: A Combat Scenario-Based Model for Quantifying Ethical Decision?Making in Military AI…

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