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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
April 30, 2026
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

Posted by By Briggs April 30, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

Posted by By Briggs April 29, 2026
Continue Reading
The Greatest Reset Movie — In Which Yours Truly Has A Cameo
Posted inCulture

The Greatest Reset Movie — In Which Yours Truly Has A Cameo

Last summer a pair of gentlemen came to interview me about the coronadoom. It was to be for the movie The Greatest Reset. Which is now out. (It's free, but…
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Summary Against Modern Thought: On Matrimony
Posted inSAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: On Matrimony

Previous post. We walk down the aisle this week. Today's lesson is: get married, have babies. ON THE SACRAMENT OF MATRIMONY 1 Now, we grant that by the sacraments men…
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The Non-Wisdom Of Crowds And Voting
Posted inStatistics

The Non-Wisdom Of Crowds And Voting

This post first appeared in modified form on 29 Januarty 2014. It also appears (also modified) in Chapter 4 of Everything You Believe Is Wrong. Have you heard of Mesd-su-Re?…
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The Regime’s Compulsion To Scientific Lunacy Explained (Partly)
Posted inCulture

The Regime’s Compulsion To Scientific Lunacy Explained (Partly)

We met our favorite headline the other day: Climate Change Destroys World, Pregnant People Hardest Hit. A version of that headline rolls off the science press about weekly, now. They…
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The Real Sin Of The Expertocracy With Covid
Posted inCulture

The Real Sin Of The Expertocracy With Covid

You're sick. Not doing at all well. You go to a celebrated doctor (God bless you for trusting him) at a major hospital. Guy was recommended by many as knowing…
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Do We Join In The Insanity, Withdraw, Or Fix It?
Posted inCulture

Do We Join In The Insanity, Withdraw, Or Fix It?

To what extent do you owe loyalty to a once beloved friend, who in his youth was wise and sober and vigorous, but who has now descended into a kind…
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How I Became A  Renegade Scientist
Posted inFun

How I Became A Renegade Scientist

This old picture of myself and a fellow outlaw is given as proof of my deep anti-social propensities. A friend of mine, long ago, would sit and listen to George…
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Summary Against Modern Thought: Sacraments Still Count From Bad Priests
Posted inSAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: Sacraments Still Count From Bad Priests

Previous post. We took last week off, given most people were (correctly) away from their computers. THAT THE SACRAMENTS CAN BE DISPENSED BY EVIL MINISTERS 1 From what we have…
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  1. John Pate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 30, 2026

    I would press the red button because it's the red button. The bigger the red button the harder you hit…

  2. Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    "their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…

  3. Johnno on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    But do we get time to explain to everyone and have them all sit down and have a discussion before…

  4. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

  5. Cato on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    There’s no point to a world without me; of course I press Red.

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