Statistics – Page 115 – William M. Briggs

Bayes Theorem and Coronavirus: The Chance You Have It & The Chance You Die

I didn't have a chance to put this in yesterday's update, but I've been asked to do it. It's a classic in every 101 biostat textbook to do Bayes theorem…

Class Statistics

Coronavirus Update IV — Take A Deep Breath — If You Still Can

Apologies for the duplicate email! I hit the wrong button yesterday and published the incomplete update meant for today. All the good stuff, caveats, and explanations are linked, some in…

Culture Statistics

Proof That Music Is Growing Worse

This post originally ran 28 September 2011, and is in the top 20 of all posts. If I ever do it again, there is much I'd expand on. The basic…

Class Statistics

Coronavirus Update III: Secondary Peak and Freak——ing Out

All the good stuff, caveats, and explanations in linked in Update II, so go there first if you haven't seen it yet. Signs & Symptoms Skip to the next section…

Class Statistics

Observable-Based , Predictive, or Causal Statistics? Don’t Test! Don’t Estimate!

The term predictive statistics is used to describe a focus on observables, and not on any invisible model-based parameters as is found in estimation and null hypothesis significance testing. It…

Statistics

Coronavirus Update II, Stats & Predictions

The code to do the plots yourself is here, a post which should be read for all the caveats, explanations, and so on. The original coronavirus post is here, which…

Class Statistics

Probability Thought Experiment With NNT: Reader Question

From reader Ernst, this interesting probability/statistics question. First, NNT = number needed to treat, which is, stealing from this site to save time, "The Number Needed to Treat (NNT) is…

Statistics

Cohort Increases In Sex With Same-Sex Partners

Today's post title is stolen from a paper by the same name "Cohort Increases In Sex With Same-Sex Partners: Do Trends Vary by Gender, Race, and Class?" in Gender &…

C-Marie on Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI PachinkoMay 5, 2026
Sooo sad about Richard Dawkins. I just prayed for Holy Spirit revelation of Jesus Christ to him. Here is hoping…
Rudolph Harrier on Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI PachinkoMay 5, 2026
I once had an old freezer and I wasn't sure if it was working properly. Since at the time I…
John Pate on Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI PachinkoMay 5, 2026
Dawkins is leaning in to the idea that we've defined consciousness as what we are seeing the AI chatbots produce.…
Phileas Frogg on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerMay 5, 2026
Push the Red button then order my entire family to do the same, because we are not obligated to risk…
Johnno on Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI PachinkoMay 4, 2026
This is your brain on the Theory of Evolution. Atheists should be restricted from any and all influential positions within…