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Latest Articles
The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club Example
June 16, 2025
Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters
June 12, 2025
Over-Certainty Of Polygenic Scores
June 11, 2025
AI & The Dilemma Of Technology
June 10, 2025
What Are The Chances Thomas Jefferson & John Adams Died On The Fourth of July, 1826?
June 9, 2025
Class 53: Laplace Was Right!
June 5, 2025
Even The Woke Say Science Is Petering Out
June 4, 2025
Expert Nathan Confas: Experts Know Best
June 3, 2025
Science Claims 7% Of Adults Saw A Mass Shooting
June 2, 2025
Class 52: The Origin Of Parameters
May 29, 2025
IQ Is Not Intelligence
May 28, 2025
What Are The Chances…George Wendt Dies On Same Day Cheers Ended 32 Years Before?
May 27, 2025
Class 51: Bayes Is Only A Formula
May 22, 2025
Blacks Have Black Fatigue: Who Is At Fault?
May 21, 2025
A Reason The Birthrate Is So Low: Food
May 20, 2025
What Are The Chances…A Women Survives Cancer 4 Times To Be Killed By “Random” Bullet?
May 19, 2025
Class 50: Independence Versus Irrelevance
May 15, 2025
The Nuances and Challenges of Federal Funding for Research — Guest Post by An Academic
May 14, 2025
Eggs and ‘PFAS-Easter’ or Selling Fear on the Day of Resurrection — Guest Post by Jaap Hanekamp
May 13, 2025
Academics Call Pregnancy A Disease
May 12, 2025
Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In Models
May 8, 2025
Posted inStatistics

The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club Example

Posted by By Briggs June 16, 2025
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters

Posted by By Briggs June 12, 2025
Continue Reading
England Voted To Have Doctors Kill Their Patients
Posted inStatistics

England Voted To Have Doctors Kill Their Patients

The MPs in the UK passed a bill that will allow doctors to kill their patients. Maybe this is their solution to the rampant immoral immigration they can't make themselves…
Read More
Emergence Is Substance; Entanglement Is Substance: Science Is Healing
Posted inStatistics

Emergence Is Substance; Entanglement Is Substance: Science Is Healing

There is an idea taking shape, vague but gaining strength, that good things are coming to Science. Science, I say, not academia. Only a cleansing fire will save academia. One…
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The Advent Of Lousy Music
Posted inStatistics

The Advent Of Lousy Music

In anticipation that many will be out, or in but out, today, no Class. Instead a topical post which ran originally on 6 December 2017. It will keep on running…
Read More
Russia’s New Paradigm — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
Posted inStatistics

Russia’s New Paradigm — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

When Thomas Kuhn released his famous book The Structure of Scientific Revolutions in 1962, it riled a lot of people. Mostly those who were wedded to the old way of…
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Old Lodge Skins’ Prayer Of Thanksgiving
Posted inFun

Old Lodge Skins’ Prayer Of Thanksgiving

Happy Thanksgiving! I’m grateful to all of you, especially those who support my work of freeing Science from gross over-certainty, thankful for what I’ve learned from you, for your patience,…
Read More
Facing The Inevitable — Guest Post by Uncle Mike
Posted inStatistics

Facing The Inevitable — Guest Post by Uncle Mike

Greetings Doomsters. I am graciously grateful to Brother Briggs for allowing me this gesture to you and for you in this histrionically historical moment during Advent -- quite possibly the…
Read More
Posted inStatistics

How To Read The Paper Claiming Semaglutide Reduces Cardiomyocyte Size and Cardiac Mass

There is a new Research Shows paper on whether drugs like Ozempic (semaglutide) lower cardiac muscle mass. It makes a good lesson in how to read statistical claims. The paper…
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Class 30: Hypothesis Testing Stinks I
Posted inStatistics

Class 30: Hypothesis Testing Stinks I

Today the math, which you don't strictly need if you can't calculate, behind how to think about Research Shows headlines and papers. This will be an invaluable exercise. You must…
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  1. Briggs on The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club ExampleJune 16, 2025

    Paul, You're right. It sucked. I'm redoing. JH, Very well. Construct for us a model that does not do what…

  2. Paul murphy on The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club ExampleJune 16, 2025

    Ok, maybe I need more coffee but I found that very confusing - too much I think that you think…

  3. JH on The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club ExampleJune 16, 2025

    The mathematical result from the Di Finetti's 0-1 Representation Theorem discussed here tells us, under the assumption of exchangeability (which…

  4. spudjr60 on The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club ExampleJune 16, 2025

    Well, it is a good thing, that I know beyond any doubt that all conspiracy theories are false. And, I…

  5. hudbwu on Over-Certainty Of Polygenic ScoresJune 11, 2025

    I stopped midway to write this comment. What exactly is the difference between polygenic scores and two-layer neural networks? Other…

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