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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Class 89: The Measure Most Modelers Forget: Skill Examples
May 14, 2026
The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!
May 13, 2026
The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?
May 12, 2026
Capital Punishment Deters Crime More Than The Death Penalty
May 11, 2026
How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain Power
May 6, 2026
Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko
May 4, 2026
Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
April 30, 2026
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 89: The Measure Most Modelers Forget: Skill Examples

Posted by By Briggs May 14, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!

Posted by By Briggs May 13, 2026
Continue Reading
Our Coming Murder & Crime Wave
Posted inCulture Statistics

Our Coming Murder & Crime Wave

In 2020, we saw a large increase in murders. Homicides were up 30% from 2019, an increase which is called "historic". "[G]un assault and aggravated assault rates climbed 8 percent…
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The Coming Spiritual Trial — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
Posted inCulture

The Coming Spiritual Trial — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Well, that didn’t take long, did it? In just over four months, we have seen four years of progress, halting as it was, evaporate into thin air. Oil, gas, coal.…
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Random Means Unknown Cause — And Nothing More
Posted inStatistics

Random Means Unknown Cause — And Nothing More

I've used this gimmick many times, so regular readers, please, shhh. I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 4. What is it? To you the number is random, because…
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COVID IS NO LONGER A MAJOR DISEASE; Gain-Of-Lethality Experiments; Vexations; More! — Coronavirus Update LXXI & Heading To Infinity!
Posted inStatistics

COVID IS NO LONGER A MAJOR DISEASE; Gain-Of-Lethality Experiments; Vexations; More! — Coronavirus Update LXXI & Heading To Infinity!

GAIN-OF-FUNCTION TESTS You'll have heard of these by now. These studies, funded by such luminaries as the Fabulous "Masks Forever" Fauci, monkey with viruses to make them more lethal, ostensibly…
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If All Models Only Say What They’re Told To Say, Can We Learn From Them? Mask Model Example
Posted inStatistics

If All Models Only Say What They’re Told To Say, Can We Learn From Them? Mask Model Example

From reader Goncalo Dias comes this excellent question: I have just sat through your seminar on (super-)models. [LINK] I have a quick question: if you assume some fluid mechanical properties…
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Summary Against Modern Thought: Understanding The Trinity V
Posted inSAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: Understanding The Trinity V

Previous post. We're coming to the end of the contrary arguments. Next week begins the case for the Defense THAT THERE IS BUT ONE SON IN THE DIVINITY 1 However,…
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Fat Anorexics;  Knife-Happy Doctors; Weak Women Warriors; More! — Return Of The Week In Doom
Posted inCulture

Fat Anorexics; Knife-Happy Doctors; Weak Women Warriors; More! — Return Of The Week In Doom

Due to underwhelming demand...the temporary return of The Week In Doom. I have a backlog of doomable material. Each ITEM is post-worthy, but the rate of increase in new items…
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Institutionalized Scientists Angry Amateurs Showing Them Up, Demand They Be Stopped
Posted inCulture

Institutionalized Scientists Angry Amateurs Showing Them Up, Demand They Be Stopped

Crystal Lee of MIT---bio: "I work broadly on topics related to the social and political dimensions of computing, data visualization, and disability. I also conduct ethnographic and computational research on…
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  1. John Pate on The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?May 14, 2026

    You haven't given any information the beast sizes of the women involved, this being an important factor (as demonstrated by…

  2. JRob on The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!May 14, 2026

    Wow, Wow, Wow! Someone else used the exaggeration method! Years ago I tried to figure out the Monte Hall problem…

  3. McChuck on The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!May 13, 2026

    There is a simpler, less math-intensive solution that gives the same answer. Knowing that it doesn't take two men to…

  4. R W Pearson on The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?May 12, 2026

    This is easy, go in the door he came out. Worse case only one young scold to give you a…

  5. Mocheirge on The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?May 12, 2026

    I asked an AI, and it had the same answer as me but with silly Bayes equations. Then out of…

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