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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
The Great Effeminization of the Academy
March 18, 2026
The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s Folly
March 17, 2026
Lancet Discovers Public Health Is Politics
March 16, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples

Posted by By Briggs April 23, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay

Posted by By Briggs April 22, 2026
Continue Reading
Sphere Eversion, Free Will & Infinite Powers
Posted inPhilosophy

Sphere Eversion, Free Will & Infinite Powers

Can a sphere be turned inside out, such that the outside becomes the inside, and vice versa, without creasing or tearing or poking a hole in the sphere? Obviously not.…
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The Epidemiologist Fallacy Strikes Again — Pesticides & Autism
Posted inStatistics

The Epidemiologist Fallacy Strikes Again — Pesticides & Autism

Long-time readers will recall the epidemiologist fallacy is a shotgun marriage of the ecological fallacy and wee p-values. Make that and/or confidence intervals. For confidence intervals are equivalent to p-values…
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So-Called Random Numbers And Encryption: Update With Real-World Example
Posted inClass Statistics

So-Called Random Numbers And Encryption: Update With Real-World Example

Psst. Hey, buddy. Word to the wise: "GQNZWZURUDPBFWDMEGBYIXGBGZRSVNHWOIQPPSH GXUVMZ". Keep it secret. That odd string of letters and spaces (well, once space) contains an encrypted message. In order to read…
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Summary Against Modern Thought: Celestial Bodies Don’t Influence Our Bodies
Posted inPhilosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: Celestial Bodies Don’t Influence Our Bodies

Previous post. Today we start the second part of Book Three. Only another year and a half or so to go in Book Three. Then, finally, Book four! Our intellects…
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The Week In Doom — Reality Based Ads Banned Edition
Posted inCulture

The Week In Doom — Reality Based Ads Banned Edition

This has been a most busy week, the Doom accelerating, which accounts for the length of this post. Item The Case for Gay Reparation (NYT) Other countries are taking steps…
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Case Study Of How Easy It Is To Go Wrong
Posted inStatistics

Case Study Of How Easy It Is To Go Wrong

We used to talk a lot about the amygdala here: Yet Another Study "Proves" Liberal, Conservative Brain Differences (wee ps, amygdalas), Scientists Suddenly Discover Men Don't Understand Women (wee ps,…
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Transgender Madness Update
Posted inCulture

Transgender Madness Update

It is impossible for a man to become a woman. It is possible, and growing more frequent, for a man to pretend to be or to believe he is a…
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Close Down Old Universities And Build Our Own?
Posted inCulture

Close Down Old Universities And Build Our Own?

Roger Scruton has called for dumping universities as they currently exist. Scrap them altogether, he says. At least dynamite the state-sponsored ones (in England). Most universities are state-sponsored, though. At…
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  1. John Pate on Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not PayApril 23, 2026

    Ovarian Logic has no relationship to, and is not amenable to, formal logic or considerations of causality and empirical observation.…

  2. C-Marie on Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not PayApril 22, 2026

    Well, skin colour is given by God to each of us. And, Jesus Christ is the only Saviour. Let us…

  3. Brian (bulaoren) on Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not PayApril 22, 2026

    @Cary I'm not sure what a "Martian giant" is... Elon Musk? I tried Google but all I found was a…

  4. John M on Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not PayApril 22, 2026

    Liberalism Is a Mental Disorder by Michael Savage, ISBN 1-59555-006-2

  5. Cary D Cotterman on Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not PayApril 22, 2026

    You speak wisdom, Martian giant.

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