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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
April 30, 2026
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

Posted by By Briggs April 30, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

Posted by By Briggs April 29, 2026
Continue Reading
The Week In Doom — 16-Year-Olds Vote Edition
Posted inCulture

The Week In Doom — 16-Year-Olds Vote Edition

Item At least 49 people are killed and 48 injured in multiple Christchurch mosque massacres involving an Australian terrorist, 28, who live-streamed himself opening fire on worshippers - as a…
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Ignorant Children Throw Tantrum: Media Fawns
Posted inCulture

Ignorant Children Throw Tantrum: Media Fawns

If reports are accurate, ignorant children "in dozens of countries on every continent will be striking together for the first time." The tempestuous tots are terrified quantum loop gravity isn't…
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Dramatic Increase Of Men Pretending To Be Napoleon
Posted inCulture

Dramatic Increase Of Men Pretending To Be Napoleon

Was walking up First Avenue and I saw another one. Fourth one is as many weeks. This one was especially flamboyant, though. I started and stared. He must have seen…
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Orthodoxy’s War: Part III — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
Posted inCulture

Orthodoxy’s War: Part III — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Stepping Up How did we get from the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) being the new and improved Fifth Patriarchate, in loving communion with her four Patriarchal brethren in 1589, to…
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USA To Pass Catholic Nation-State Law
Posted inCulture

USA To Pass Catholic Nation-State Law

How's this grab you? The USA is not a state of all its citizens. According to the Nation-State Law which ought to be passed, the USA will be the nation-state…
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When We Abandon Statistical Significance, Non-Statisticians Will Resist The Strongest
Posted inStatistics

When We Abandon Statistical Significance, Non-Statisticians Will Resist The Strongest

Regular readers will know the arguments and evidence proving P-values should no longer be used for any reason. If you still doubt, which I doubt, read this paper. Every decision…
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Summary Against Modern Thought:  God Does Not Eliminate The Need For Science 2
Posted inPhilosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: God Does Not Eliminate The Need For Science 2

Previous post. This is the conclusion of last week's chapter. Review! ON THE OPINION OF THOSE WHO TAKE AWAY PROPER ACTIONS FROM NATURAL THINGS 16 Moreover, as it is the…
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The Week In Doom — Amazon Bans Reality-Based Books Edition
Posted inCulture

The Week In Doom — Amazon Bans Reality-Based Books Edition

Item Tennis great Martina Navratilova apologizes for controversial remarks on 'cheating' trans athletes Tennis legend Martina Navratilova apologized after she was criticized for recently saying in an oped that it…
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  1. tfc on Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: SkillMay 1, 2026

    Wow. Americans say the Soviet Union was a huge success.

  2. John Pate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 30, 2026

    I would press the red button because it's the red button. The bigger the red button the harder you hit…

  3. Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    "their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…

  4. Johnno on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    But do we get time to explain to everyone and have them all sit down and have a discussion before…

  5. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

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