William M. Briggs

Researchers Discover Parents Label Animals By Binary Sex At Zoos

Today a paper which is the almost certain winner of the Third Annual WMBriggs.com Bad Science Award (First winner; Second winner). Discovered by reader Nate Winchester, we have the peer-reviewed…

Culture

Russia’s Rise: Part I — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

This is Part I of II parts. The second part will run next Tuesday. I have been asked why I think Russia has returned to the center stage in world…

Culture Statistics

Pope Says Using Paper & Plastic A Sin

If you're a Christian, what do you suppose is the most pressing problem in the world today? The rapid fading of Christianity in the West? The dramatic increase in, and…

Philosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: Differences In Being and What Is In Intellectual Substances

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. All posts are under the category SAMT. Previous post. Back to…

Culture Philosophy

On Ethical Socialism — Guest Post by Oswald Spengler

This excerpt is drawn from the 1965 Oxford University Press abridged edition of The Decline of the West, pages 185-187. Let us, once more, review Socialism (independently if the economic…

Statistics

Stream: xkcd’s Global Warming Time Series Mistakes

Today's post is at the Stream: xkcd's Global Warming Time Series Mistakes. The popular web cartoon xkcd has provided a wonderful opportunity to plug my must-read (and too expensive) book…

Culture

Comments on The Flight 93 Election. Let’s Roll

From reader Dean Ericson and from many other sources, the required must-read "The Flight 93 Election" by Publius Decius Mus at the sober Claremont Review of Books. If you support…

Fun

Uncertainty and the World: An interview with W. M. Briggs at Ordeal of Consciousness

Our friend Dover Beach, perhaps after having taken a fall or because he stood too close to Hillary and caught her disease, considered it would be well to interview Yours…

Rudolph Harrier on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
I've started thinking of this as the "juice loosener problem" (after the Simpsons bit where Dr. Nick hawks an orange…
Cary D Cotterman on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
After spending years in school doing my own writing, then decades in my profession busting my ass to write somewhere…
Uncle Mike on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
AI isn't the entity smoothing the data. The alleged decline in Arctic sea ice was a key assertion in Algore's…
JH on A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?March 10, 2026
The definition of cause can vary, and each incident may have its causes or contributing factors. I see coincidences as…
JH on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
AI can be ‘gullible’ because it takes all the information fed into its optimization or backpropagation system. In many tasks,…

William M. Briggs

The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AI

A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?

Class 81: The Second Biggest Error In Time Series

The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In Kind

Researcher Imagines Weather With No Human Influence: Concludes Climate Change Hurts Incomes

Faith Deposited: Why Godless Science Fails

Class 80: Granger Causality; Per Se & Accidental Time Series; Stationarity

Scientists Seeking To Escape Criticism Run To The Warmth & Comfort Of Bluesky

The Loss of Ephemera — Guest Post by The Blonde Bombshell

Class 79: Time Series Example

The Importance Of Not Making Decisions

Don’t Take The ‘Long-Covid’ Alzheimer’s Study Seriously

AI Is Driving Many Crazy: Our Latest Panic

Class 78: The Attempt To Turn Correlation Lead Into Causation Gold In Time Series

Desperate Need For Equality: AP Exam Performance

Some Sanity: Experts Sued For Creating Gender Delusions

Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGI

Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So Well

Impossible LSAT Statistics Question

How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)

Class 77: Trendy Trends In Time Series