#### The Claim 37% Of Heat Deaths Are Caused By Global Warming Is Absurd

The media has been reporting that 37% "of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change". They gleaned this from the peer-reviewed paper, "The burden of heat-related mortality…

#### Z-Scores Are Misleading & Create Panic: Or, How Not To Compare Pandemics

A number of people panicked to the point their minds have turned to quivering jelly, angry at my calmness, have been emailing and tweeting me the equivalent of "Oh yeah,…

#### Disproving Kossin’s Increasing Hurricane Intensity Claims: Update — Guest Post by Greg Kent

Editor's note I have strong views on statistical "significance", confidence intervals, p-values, and all that, finding them harmful and worse. However, Kossin used these concepts, and a criticism of his…

#### An Argument Against The Multiverse

The multiverse might be real. God might in His wisdom and love of completeness and true diversity and the joy of filling all possible potentials with actuality might have created…

#### How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part IX Stan — Logistic & Beta Regression

Review! We're doing logistic and beta regression this time. These aren't far apart, because the observable for both lives between 0 and 1; for logistic it is 0 or 1;…

#### Lovely Example of Statistics Gone Bad

The graph above (biggified version here) was touted by Simon Kuestenmacher (who posts many beautiful maps). He said "This plot shows the objects that were found to be 'the most…

#### How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part X: Survival Analysis

Query: now that I'm a video master, would people like videos of these lessons? I don't see how they'd help much, but who knows. Let me know below or via…

#### Uncertainty: The Soul of Models, Probability & Statistics. Chapter Abstracts

This post originally appeared right before the Uncertainty did. Now that we're 1.5 years out, it's time for a re-post. Buy it now, but it today, and buy it again…