How’d We Do On Our 2019 Predictions?
A strong no prize this year. Nobody did well enough. Not enough specific predictions, or those that were specific did not come to pass. Doom predictions are too easy: they…
Posted inStatistics
Coronavirus Update XI — Robbing The Cemeteries To Pad Death Totals
All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Classical Statistics Has Outlived Its Usefulness: Here’s The Fix
A PDF of this article may be downloaded here. This article is a precis of Uncertainty. Opening Act Patient walks into the doctor and says, "Doc, I saw that new…
Posted inFun
Register Your Predictions For 2019!
As has been our tradition these many years, it's time to register our predictions for the coming year. We look at how well we did last year tomorrow. Rules: Number…
Posted inCulture
Corruption Of All Authority: An Interim Doom Report
"Any organization not explicitly right-wing sooner or later becomes left-wing." This is, as everybody knows, Conquest's Second Law. It is a true law, as all modern experience shows. But it…
Posted inStatistics
Everything Is Already In The Simulation
On Drudge a while back was linked the article "Pandemic 'could wipe out 900 million people,' experts warn" in some tabloid or sensationalistic rag (New York Times?). A chilling simulation…
Posted inFun
Register Your Predictions For 2018
As has been our tradition these many years, it's time to register our predictions for the coming year. We look at how well we did last year later this week.…
Posted inStatistics
How’d We Do On Our 2017 Predictions?
How'd we do? Not so hot. We missed big events; but then, 2017 was a screwy year with our continued slide into Insanity & Doom accelerating. As Yogi Berra may…
