Search Results for “prediction forecast” – Page 3

Masters Predictions & (Some) Statistics — Podcast Bonus

PODCAST BONUS! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNsyJf2MX2w See last Master's year's predictions here. Since not much has changed, I'm doing a lot of copying and pasting. The Podcast bonus is because of the screwed…

Fun Statistics

How’d We Do On Our 2015 Predictions?

The answer to the post title's question is: I'm not so sure. Because why? Because the predictions everybody registered were lost when I was hacked last January. Why was I…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part III

Read Part I, Part II Part III This brings us to the second reason for measuring model goodness. Or rather an incorrect implementation of it. A lot of folks announce…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update

Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I

Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don't need models to…

Statistics

How’d We Do On Our 2014 Predictions?

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Time to tally. As has become our tradition, each New Year's Eve we see…

Philosophy Statistics

On Nate Silver’s Predictions: Which Side Of The Probability Equation Are We On?

When I checked FiveThirtyEight.com's Senate prediction, it said "Republicans have a 72.3% chance of winning a majority." There were also words that the "probability that each party will win control…

Philosophy Statistics

Explanation Vs Prediction

Introduction There isn't as much space between explanation and prediction as you'd think; both are had from the same elements of the problem at hand. Here's how it all works.…

Gwyneth on The Biggest Mistake In Science Applied To Universe As SimulationDecember 8, 2025
A while back, in the heat of an argument, a man stated that, "There is only one reality." I replied…
_Jim on Antichrist, by Saint Robert BellarmineDecember 8, 2025
Of those poo-poohing, how many of you have read-up on the (many now) apparitions throughout history? Fatima, Loudres, Our Lady…
gareth on Class 73: How To Tell If You Have Bad DiceDecember 7, 2025
Beware anything that says "install.packages('')" Only yesterday I went to install an upgrade of some VNC package. "1 to install,…
John Pate on Class 73: How To Tell If You Have Bad DiceDecember 6, 2025
The problem came when computers made it easy to plug numbers without you really knowing what you're doing. It became…
Rudolph Harrier on Class 73: How To Tell If You Have Bad DiceDecember 6, 2025
I think the problem is that many people want to have a consistent process above all else. They don't want…