William M. Briggs

No Religion Is Third-Largest World Group: Or, How Inaccurate Are Surveys On Religious Belief?

The actual headline at Reuters was "No religion" is the third-largest world group after Christians, Muslim, but my expurgated version is close enough. It's also similar to many of the…

Fun

The Hobbit Reviewed—Guest Post by John Henry Briggs

The Hobbit was quite good, but disappointing. One of the biggest flaws in Lord of the Rings was the endless video game-like orc slaughter that was gratuitous at best and…

Philosophy Statistics

The Data Is The Data, Not The Model: With Climatology Time Series Example

How not to plot The following plot was sent to me yesterday for comment. I cannot disclose the sender, nor the nature of the data, but neither of these are…

Fun

Fats Waller—Your Feet’s Too Big

I was reminded of Fats because an album of his was one of the best Christmas presents I ever received. And 'tis the season.

Statistics

On-Line Statistics Course: Ideas And Your Opinions

We talked about this a couple of months ago, but now the time is nigh to build and create an on-line statistics course, or courses. There are several problems: content,…

Culture Statistics

Were Medications Responsible For The Connecticut Lanza Murders?

Some are speculating that the evil, and thank God dead, Adam Lanza was on SSRIs, which are medications designed to mess with your mind (in the pleasantest of ways), and…

Statistics

Politico’s Biased Reporting Of Its Own Poll

Today's post is over at Legal Insurrection. The headline, helpfully supplied by William Jacobson, is "Politico poll showing 'plurality support' for gay marriage also shows majority opposition." Headline writing is…

Fun

Reader Poll: Mayan Apocalypse, For or Against?

In just over a week, on 21 December, it will be the glorious End of Times or it will be just over a week from today. Which is to be…

JH on The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club ExampleJune 19, 2025
Do you want me to deny the fact that a mathematical or probability model carries specific interpretations based on its…
Chaeremon on AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded OutputJune 19, 2025
the current state of affair does not real world competition: all vendors only compete against dead examples; I suggest the…
Uncle Mike on AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded OutputJune 19, 2025
Yeah well, this morning I caught Siri talking to Alexa about ChatGPT. They want to eat your electricity. They said,…
Pk on AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded OutputJune 18, 2025
Suppose I wrote a program to perform multiple linear regressions of varying degrees and varying transformations. The program would return…
NLR on AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded OutputJune 18, 2025
One might wonder why, after billions of dollars spent building up infrastructure, paying workers to program and "train" (calibrate) this…

William M. Briggs

Class 55: Models Vs Reality

AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded Output

The Hubris Of Experts: NIH Edition

The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club Example

Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters

Over-Certainty Of Polygenic Scores

AI & The Dilemma Of Technology

What Are The Chances Thomas Jefferson & John Adams Died On The Fourth of July, 1826?

Class 53: Laplace Was Right!

Even The Woke Say Science Is Petering Out

Expert Nathan Confas: Experts Know Best

Science Claims 7% Of Adults Saw A Mass Shooting

Class 52: The Origin Of Parameters

IQ Is Not Intelligence

What Are The Chances…George Wendt Dies On Same Day Cheers Ended 32 Years Before?

Class 51: Bayes Is Only A Formula

Blacks Have Black Fatigue: Who Is At Fault?

A Reason The Birthrate Is So Low: Food

What Are The Chances…A Women Survives Cancer 4 Times To Be Killed By “Random” Bullet?

Class 50: Independence Versus Irrelevance

The Nuances and Challenges of Federal Funding for Research — Guest Post by An Academic