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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain Power
May 6, 2026
Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko
May 4, 2026
Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
April 30, 2026
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Posted inStatistics

How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain Power

Posted by By Briggs May 6, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko

Posted by By Briggs May 4, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inCulture Philosophy

Academics Call For The Killing Of Babies In “After-Birth” Abortions

Update This is back in the news. This (lightly edited) post originally appeared 28 February 2012. Academic philosophers Alberto Giubilini and Francesca Minerva---shockingly working in Australia1, a land where commonsense…
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Posted inStatistics

EPA’s Climate Change Adaptation Plan

The EPA has asked for my advice.1 They will not listen to, or harken, or act on this advice, but asking for it gives them a sense that they have…
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Posted inCulture

7-Year-Old Suspended For Carrying Unlicensed Pop Tart: Update

Did you feel it? The latest lurch towards insanity happened in Baltimore, where seven-year-old Josh Welch was suspended from school for eating a Pop Tart. Turns out he bit off…
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Posted inCulture Fun

What Day Most Changed History?

Such was the title of The Atlantic's "The Big Question" column of March, 2013. This is the sort of piece one finds uppermost in the toilet's magazine rack. So now…
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Posted inFun Statistics

On Dowsing—Guest Post by Ray Kidd

I dug a one-meter square test pit outside an 18th century ruined cottage. A "dowser" invited to test his powers stood beside the pit dangling a bob on a string.…
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Posted inStatistics

Science Can Tell If You’re A Racist Just By Looking At You

George Carlin used to advise those who wanted to avoid jury duty to tell the judge, "Don't worry about me, your honor. I can tell guilty people---<snap!>---just like that!" We…
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Posted inStatistics

The Second & Third Most Depressing Graphs: The Encroachment Of Government

Update This stays top for today because we're still waiting for some regulars to chime in and because I'm busy. Here is federal government spending as a fraction of the…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

The Most Depressing Graph: Per Capita Federal Spending Rises Alarmingly: Update

There is no more saddening picture of the progress of government than this one (the second & third most depressing graphs are here): This is the amount of money the…
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  1. Bill Hankel on How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain PowerMay 6, 2026

    I decided to accept your challenge, knowing with near certainty that your intuition was correct. I invested 15-20 seconds total…

  2. C-Marie on Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI PachinkoMay 5, 2026

    Sooo sad about Richard Dawkins. I just prayed for Holy Spirit revelation of Jesus Christ to him. Here is hoping…

  3. Rudolph Harrier on Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI PachinkoMay 5, 2026

    I once had an old freezer and I wasn't sure if it was working properly. Since at the time I…

  4. John Pate on Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI PachinkoMay 5, 2026

    Dawkins is leaning in to the idea that we've defined consciousness as what we are seeing the AI chatbots produce.…

  5. Phileas Frogg on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerMay 5, 2026

    Push the Red button then order my entire family to do the same, because we are not obligated to risk…

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