William M. Briggs

CARB Misinterprets Statistics, Calls For Elimination Of Dust

The California Air Resources Board, or CARB, has issued a press release that shows how easy it is to misunderstand statistics. That most do---fail to comprehend what statistical results are…

Fun Statistics

Are Moneylines Useful In Predicting NFL Games?

Today's post is over at Edgehogs. I wanted to know how good moneylines were at predicting wins and loses. Since Las Vegas is still in business, it was a good…

Fun

Count Zappula, Horror Host Par Excellence

Gaylord, Michigan, 1979, population 3000. It was 11:30pm, I was 15, in bed watching television with the house dark, parents asleep, a small B&W portable set perched on the blanket,…

Fun

Open Thread: What To Chat About Next?

It is once again Travel Day---or was: I'm writing this in state of advanced jet lag. So, in lieu of thought I've written this little introduction to nothing, hoping you…

Statistics

Increasing Replication Of Un-Reproducibility In Science

Best science picture of the year, courtesy of the Wall Street Journal (and thanks to reader Dan Hughes): In just the last decade---ten mere years---the number of "peer-reviewed" journal articles…

Culture

Make Colleges Co-Signers Of Student Loans?

As often has been said, if everybody is a genius, then nobody is. The wisdom in this apothegm is little changed by the modification: if everybody has a certification of…

Culture Philosophy

Science Explains Belief In God Through Genetics

Let's look at "Life's Extremes: Atheists vs. Believers", a piece on Live Science (the home of unexpurgated university press releases; hat tip to HotAir). The article is itself slight---it begins…

Statistics

Geo-engineering The Climate: Durban Global Warming Conference

A group of scientists, funded generously by Big Green, which includes the Environmental Defense Fund, have released a report to coincide with the efforts of the Durban Global Warming Conference,…

hudbwu on Over-Certainty Of Polygenic ScoresJune 11, 2025
I stopped midway to write this comment. What exactly is the difference between polygenic scores and two-layer neural networks? Other…
NLR on AI & The Dilemma Of TechnologyJune 11, 2025
It's not just that the effects of technology are complex, it's that there's no guarantee that the results will fit…
Cloudbuster on AI & The Dilemma Of TechnologyJune 10, 2025
"Anyway, murder is illegal, too, yet murder is still with us. So it shouldn’t be strange that forbidding scientists to…
Mike Wooly on Cosmic Radiation, Clouds, & Global WarmingJune 10, 2025
The IPCC report that anthropogenic warming is around 0.2 degrees C per decade. That's two hundredths of a degree C…
Chaeremon on AI & The Dilemma Of TechnologyJune 10, 2025
IMHO the dot ai bubble, as direct follower of the dot com bubble, is trying to instantiate Gödel's incompleteness theorems,…

William M. Briggs

Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters

Over-Certainty Of Polygenic Scores

AI & The Dilemma Of Technology

What Are The Chances Thomas Jefferson & John Adams Died On The Fourth of July, 1826?

Class 53: Laplace Was Right!

Even The Woke Say Science Is Petering Out

Expert Nathan Confas: Experts Know Best

Science Claims 7% Of Adults Saw A Mass Shooting

Class 52: The Origin Of Parameters

IQ Is Not Intelligence

What Are The Chances…George Wendt Dies On Same Day Cheers Ended 32 Years Before?

Class 51: Bayes Is Only A Formula

Blacks Have Black Fatigue: Who Is At Fault?

A Reason The Birthrate Is So Low: Food

What Are The Chances…A Women Survives Cancer 4 Times To Be Killed By “Random” Bullet?

Class 50: Independence Versus Irrelevance

The Nuances and Challenges of Federal Funding for Research — Guest Post by An Academic

Eggs and ‘PFAS-Easter’ or Selling Fear on the Day of Resurrection — Guest Post by Jaap Hanekamp

Academics Call Pregnancy A Disease

Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In Models

Miracle Or Coincidence? What Are The Chances?