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Scientists Use The Double-Dog Epidemiologist Fallacy To Claim Breathing Induces Antibiotic Resistance
Posted inStatistics

Scientists Use The Double-Dog Epidemiologist Fallacy To Claim Breathing Induces Antibiotic Resistance

Thanks to AS! I don't have your email, so I hope you see this. The epidemiologist fallacy occurs when a scientist announces, directly or implicitly, that X Causes Y, but…
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Mask Forever, Says Experts’ Model, It Saves Lives!
Posted inStatistics

Mask Forever, Says Experts’ Model, It Saves Lives!

Here's a question for you, brought to you by propagandists: "Could permanent masks in public become Vic policy?" And here's the headline: "Could wearing masks in public be the answer…
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How To Discover Any Trend You Want In Climate Time Series
Posted inStatistics

How To Discover Any Trend You Want In Climate Time Series

Day five of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…
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Posted inStatistics

How Smoothing Time Series Generates Massive Over-Certainty

Day four of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…
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Signal + Noise vs. Signal: Don’t Make This Classic Mistake
Posted inClass Statistics

Signal + Noise vs. Signal: Don’t Make This Classic Mistake

Day three of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I am on vacation…
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The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves
Posted inStatistics

The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves

Day two of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I…
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Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!
Posted inStatistics

Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!

Welcome to the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author has…
Read More
Posted inStatistics

Over-Certainty Is One Of The Main Causes Of Bad Science: Brain Volume & IQ Example

Announcement Next week I am on vacation as I prepare for the Cultural Event of the year. There will be no new posts: there may be classic reposts. Don't miss…
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  1. dadgervais on Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI PachinkoMay 8, 2026

    As I (computer engineer, retired) have always maintained: people who believe in mechanical inteligence suffer from "Clever Hans Syndrome". A…

  2. NLR on Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI PachinkoMay 7, 2026

    It appears that Dawkins does not have a well thought out philosophy of consciousness and so he has psyched himself…

  3. jgh on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerMay 7, 2026

    There's an episode of Golden Balls where one contentant understood how The Prisoners' Dilemma worked and succcessfully tricked his opponent…

  4. Johnno on How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain PowerMay 6, 2026

    Hence we descriptively say in plural... a "calamity of victims." Or a "catastrophe of Expurts." Or an "academy of failures."…

  5. Brian (bulaoren) on How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain PowerMay 6, 2026

    So, three circumlocutors walk into a bar...

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