William M. Briggs

“Bring Who Did It To Justice” and Other News Words I Hate

Faisal Shahzad, a Pakistani-American, who, preliminary reports indicate, is not a member of the Tea Party, has been arrested in connection with the Times Square bombing. Officials think that either…

Culture

Goodbye Ownership & Privacy: Apple, Amazon, the Government Have Your Numbers

Brian Hogan, 21, of Redwood City, California found a prototype Apple iPhone 4G accidentally left in a German Beer garden by a (soused?) Apple employee. Hogan recognized the phone for…

Philosophy Statistics

The Truth of Things: When Probability & Statistics Cannot Be Used

I am always struggling with (my limited ability of) finding ways to describe the philosophy behind logical probability, especially to people who have a difficult time unlearning classical frequentist theory.…

Fun Statistics

Poem Code Challenge Solution

Back in September we surrendered to our geek roots and described poem codes. These are a handy method of enciphering short messages in the absence of electronic equipment. A poem…

Philosophy Statistics

Is Experimental Economics Irrational?

Everybody knows there's no such thing as money. So how come everybody acts like it's real? In particular, why do economists and other similar creatures find the lack of "rationality"…

Statistics

My Answers to Willis Eschenbach’s 14 + 2 Questions

Repost Mr Eschenbach had not had the chance to respond to this article before the two weeks wherein comments are automatically closed have elapsed. This re-post will allow him, and…

Culture

Pajamas Media: The VAT Man Cometh: It Will Happen. How Bad Is It?

Today's post is at Pajamas Media: "The VAT Man Cometh: It Will Happen. How Bad Is It?" I have a ghost of an old song---big band days---hiding in the back…

Statistics

What Can Volcanic Dust Models Tell Us About Cap & Trade?

Say Eyjafjallajokull three times fast. I wish I could say it once. I've heard it in so many different forms since it blew its stack that I can't be sure…

Rudolph Harrier on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
I've started thinking of this as the "juice loosener problem" (after the Simpsons bit where Dr. Nick hawks an orange…
Cary D Cotterman on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
After spending years in school doing my own writing, then decades in my profession busting my ass to write somewhere…
Uncle Mike on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
AI isn't the entity smoothing the data. The alleged decline in Arctic sea ice was a key assertion in Algore's…
JH on A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?March 10, 2026
The definition of cause can vary, and each incident may have its causes or contributing factors. I see coincidences as…
JH on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
AI can be ‘gullible’ because it takes all the information fed into its optimization or backpropagation system. In many tasks,…

William M. Briggs

The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AI

A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?

Class 81: The Second Biggest Error In Time Series

The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In Kind

Researcher Imagines Weather With No Human Influence: Concludes Climate Change Hurts Incomes

Faith Deposited: Why Godless Science Fails

Class 80: Granger Causality; Per Se & Accidental Time Series; Stationarity

Scientists Seeking To Escape Criticism Run To The Warmth & Comfort Of Bluesky

The Loss of Ephemera — Guest Post by The Blonde Bombshell

Class 79: Time Series Example

The Importance Of Not Making Decisions

Don’t Take The ‘Long-Covid’ Alzheimer’s Study Seriously

AI Is Driving Many Crazy: Our Latest Panic

Class 78: The Attempt To Turn Correlation Lead Into Causation Gold In Time Series

Desperate Need For Equality: AP Exam Performance

Some Sanity: Experts Sued For Creating Gender Delusions

Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGI

Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So Well

Impossible LSAT Statistics Question

How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)

Class 77: Trendy Trends In Time Series