Temperature causes Here is an atmospheric monthly average temperature series: T = (61, 69, 69, 70, 72, 65, 63) (all F). What caused the temperature to take the value T1 = 61? […]
Time Series And Causality: Global Warming Example
Time Series Aren’t Easy: Tornado Deaths Example
Time series are the most abused statistics in the physical sciences. (It’s an endless, raucous, peer-reviewed contest for the worst in the “soft sciences.”) The Mann problem (is that a typo?) is […]
Paper Claims Surprisingly Strong Link Between Climate Change And Violence. Nonsense.
When does more crime happen, in winter or summer? Why? Too easy. How about this one: according to the FBI, what was the violent crime rate over time? No need to guess. […]
Sampling Variability Is A Screwy, Misleading Concept
@freakonometrics @DiegoKuonen @mattstat Pure data analysis cannot kill inference. Sampling variability cannot be hidden!!! — Paolo Giudici (@stateconomist) March 6, 2015 Because of travel and jet lag, exacerbated by “springing forward”, we […]
Uncertainty Is An Impossible Sell
I’ve never seen the show, but I’ve heard that the protagonist on the X Files used to have a desk sign which read, “I want to believe.” That sentiment characterizes most buyers […]
Resolved: Statisticians To Cease Using “Independence”, Change To “Irrelevance”
What’s the difference between “independence” and “irrelevance” and why does that difference matter? This typical passage is from The First Course in Probability by Sheldon Ross (p. 87) is lovely because many […]
Real Climate Temperature “Trend” Article Gets It Wrong (Like So Many Do)
This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Everything that can go wrong with a time series analysis has gone wrong with the post […]
On UFOs, Salt Intake, And Heart Disease
Michael “State of Fear” Crichton once proposed that UFOs were responsible for global warming. Why not? After all, something caused that record amount of snow in Detroit yesterday. Don’t get me wrong. […]
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