This is a tad incoherent, but the gist is here. I had the opportunity of submitting an abstract to the AGU fall meeting, and had only a couple of hours in which […]
There Is No Difference Between A Forecast, A Scenario, or A Projection
Lovejoy’s New Attempt To Show We Are Doomed Does Not Convince
We last met Shaun Lovejoy when he claimed that mankind caused global temperatures to increase. At the 99.9% level, of course. He’s now saying that the increase which wasn’t observed wasn’t there […]
Explanation Vs Prediction
Introduction There isn’t as much space between explanation and prediction as you’d think; both are had from the same elements of the problem at hand. Here’s how it all works. I’ll illustrate […]
(Most) Everything Wrong With Time Series
It came out at my recent meeting that a compilation of everything wrong with time series was in order. A lot of this I’ve done before, and so, just as much for […]
How To Properly Handle Proxy Time Series Reconstructions
This is all made up data, so as not to hurt anybody’s feelings. Also, this is a sketch. Everything can’t be done in 700 words. We are interested in the time series […]
The Deadly Sin Of Reification! Day Three
Zeno Phobia Counting day. How many ways can you skin a cat if the number of sharp versus dull knives is this and such. Simple stuff, easy to get the hang off. […]
The Philosophy of Probability and Statistics (Book. Sort Of.)
I have decided to let you, dear reader, help me finish my book, which I have tentatively entitled The Philosophy of Probability and Statistics. This is about the seventeenth version of the […]
He Did What?
Coming Soon! I’ve started a series called “What This-or-That Technique Really Is”. First up is regression. It would have shown today, but—can you guess?—it isn’t finished. I made the mistake of also […]
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