William M. Briggs

Why School Boards Ignore Parents: Or, How The Expertocracy Works

There is still considerable confusion about our present form of government, which is a form of the managerial society predicted by Burnham, and outlined in intricate detail by Sam Francis.…

SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: On Eating & Procreation After Resurrection

Previous post. Our good saint believes no eating and no procreating after the resurrection. This is a very long one. THAT AMONG THE RISEN THERE WILL BE NO USE OF…

Culture

Nervous Chemists Demand Science DIE Harder

You have a pool of, say, 500 professionally trained specialty chemists---which is to say, chemists who specialize in a certain branch of chemistry that has suddenly gained popularity. I'm making…

Culture Statistics

CDC Panel Unanimously Recommends Truth Be Damned: Kids & The Coronadoom Vex

Update Well, they voted the wrong way. I'm also a bit surprised there doesn't seem much interest in this news. How quickly we surrender? Rochelle Walensky, the head of CDC,…

Statistics

Moving Away From The Mysticism Of “Random” Numbers

ET Jaynes in his must-have Probability Theory: The Logic of Science said, "It appears to be a quite general principle that, whenever there is a randomized way of doing something,…

Philosophy Statistics

All Those Warnings About Models Are True: Researchers Given Same Data Come To Huge Number Of Conflicting Findings

Seventy-some researcher groups were given identical data, and asked to investigate an identical question. The groups did not communicate. Details are in the paper "Observing Many Researchers Using the Same…

Statistics

The Disparagement Of Epidemiology

I was having an argument with a friend who was on his way to a conference to point out the shortcomings and over-confidence of Evidence Based Medicine (EBM). With EBM,…

SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: On Immortality

Previous post. Forever is a long time. THAT MEN WILL RISE IMMORTAL 1 From this it is clear, also, that in the resurrection to come men will not so rise…

shawn marshall on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026
I asked Grok to assign probabilities to all the known facts about the Shroud of Turin and then calculate a…
Rudolph Harrier on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026
It's an interesting thought experiment. However, we will never have a practical implementation of the test because it would be…
Briggs on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026
hudbwu, You could be right.
hudbwu on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026
Caution: it may be that intelligence can not be confirmed by any behavioral test. For example, free will can not…
Lucy Tucker on How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)February 5, 2026
I’m ready to give up the right to vote.

William M. Briggs

Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGI

Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So Well

Impossible LSAT Statistics Question

How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)

Class 77: Trendy Trends In Time Series

Who Still Listens To AM Radio?

Scientists Invent New Name For Models: Digital Twins

What Science Says About Making Medication Mandatory

What A Winter

FDA Goes Bayes: It Should Have Gone Probability

Class 76: That’s Not Noise. That’s Signal!

AI: The Earth Is Spinning Faster & Slower (Because “Climate Change”)

Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis Shooting

Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose Money

Class 75: A Gentle Introduction To Time Series

The Consent Fallacy

On Laws Banning Hacking Women’s Genitals & Imposing Beliefs

Register Your Predictions For 2026!

Happy New Year!

How Did We Do In Our 2025 Predictions?

Why The Drake Equation Fails