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William M. Briggs

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Scientists Use The Double-Dog Epidemiologist Fallacy To Claim Breathing Induces Antibiotic Resistance
Posted inStatistics

Scientists Use The Double-Dog Epidemiologist Fallacy To Claim Breathing Induces Antibiotic Resistance

Thanks to AS! I don't have your email, so I hope you see this. The epidemiologist fallacy occurs when a scientist announces, directly or implicitly, that X Causes Y, but…
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Mask Forever, Says Experts’ Model, It Saves Lives!
Posted inStatistics

Mask Forever, Says Experts’ Model, It Saves Lives!

Here's a question for you, brought to you by propagandists: "Could permanent masks in public become Vic policy?" And here's the headline: "Could wearing masks in public be the answer…
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How To Discover Any Trend You Want In Climate Time Series
Posted inStatistics

How To Discover Any Trend You Want In Climate Time Series

Day five of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…
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Posted inStatistics

How Smoothing Time Series Generates Massive Over-Certainty

Day four of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…
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Signal + Noise vs. Signal: Don’t Make This Classic Mistake
Posted inClass Statistics

Signal + Noise vs. Signal: Don’t Make This Classic Mistake

Day three of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I am on vacation…
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The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves
Posted inStatistics

The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves

Day two of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I…
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Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!
Posted inStatistics

Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!

Welcome to the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author has…
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Posted inStatistics

Over-Certainty Is One Of The Main Causes Of Bad Science: Brain Volume & IQ Example

Announcement Next week I am on vacation as I prepare for the Cultural Event of the year. There will be no new posts: there may be classic reposts. Don't miss…
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  1. Another “Curate’s Egg?” Comments on Magnifica Humanitas – The American Catholic on Laudato Si: “The Curate’s Egg.” The Not So Excellent Parts. Guest Post by Bob KurlandJune 15, 2026

    […] If ever one wanted an analogy to show that a flawed work had good parts, it would be the…

  2. Truly Random Numbers Found? – William M. Briggs on Quantum Potency & ProbabilityJune 15, 2026

    […] Which leaves open the possibility we might gain at least some knowledge of non-local causes. This article gives one…

  3. Brian (bulaoren) on Truly Random Numbers Found?June 15, 2026

    Wait...Does this mean that all those non-winning lottery tickets, I've bought over the years, were drawn from non-randomly-generated numbers? I…

  4. McChuck on Truly Random Numbers Found?June 15, 2026

    What QM leaves out of their "randomness is fundamental" picture is the state of the entire rest of the universe.…

  5. John M on Climate Change Increases Risk of Even Slower World Cup Games!June 15, 2026

    LarryG, I appreciate that sport and game participants can enjoy their favorite activity but that doesn't make the activity entertaining.

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