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How The Expertocracy Builds Consensus & You Become A Denier
Posted inStatistics

How The Expertocracy Builds Consensus & You Become A Denier

I know the weaknesses of the terms Expert and expertocracy, and am willing to consider all alternatives. An Expert is a person with training and, more importantly, credentials, in an…
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Posted inStatistics

How Smoothing Time Series Generates Massive Over-Certainty

Day four of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…
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Science: Climate Changes Causes Only Bad Things, And No Good Things
Posted inFun

Science: Climate Changes Causes Only Bad Things, And No Good Things

So I saw this headline, "The International Eczema Council investigate how climate change may impact eczema". And I remembered I owed readers an investigation into all the bad things, and…
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The Less You Know About Climate, The More You Cry About Climate
Posted inStatistics

The Less You Know About Climate, The More You Cry About Climate

Some things, the saying goes, are too good to check. Take the peer-reviewed paper "Environmental knowledge is inversely associated with climate change anxiety" by Hannes Zacher and Cort W. Rudolph…
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There Are No Such Things As 100-Year Floods: Global Warming Isn’t Making Floods Worse
Posted inStatistics

There Are No Such Things As 100-Year Floods: Global Warming Isn’t Making Floods Worse

Reader Chuck Lampert writes: Hi Briggs! I got into a kerfluffle with some Climate Apocalypse true believers who said the frequency of 1/50, 1/100, 1/500, and 1/1000 yr floods is…
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I’m An Expert: I Must Be Right
Posted inPhilosophy

I’m An Expert: I Must Be Right

For the closing days of summer, I am posting every chapter of the first edition of Everything You Believe Is Wrong. My enemies ravaged the first edition, inserting typos galore…
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On Breaking Climate Records — And Not Panicking
Posted inStatistics

On Breaking Climate Records — And Not Panicking

Thucydides in The Peloponnesian War speaks of Athenian prisoners dying from "variation in the temperature" in the conditions they were kept. Athens itself suffered deadly droughts at least in the…
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Climate Change & Gun Violence Research — A Mini-Play In One Act
Posted inCulture

Climate Change & Gun Violence Research — A Mini-Play In One Act

SCENE: A PRESTIGIOUS UNIVERSITY DRAMATIS PERSONAE: TWO AGING PRESTIGIOUS ACADEMICS "Hey, dude, we're, like scientists. Maybe we should, like, do some research." "Yeah, man. Do research." "Do research. We definitely…
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  1. NLR on Expert Nathan Confas: Experts Know BestJune 3, 2025

    People are willing to take advice from someone with greater knowledge or understanding, provided that the experts is trustworthy and…

  2. Phil R on Expert Nathan Confas: Experts Know BestJune 3, 2025

    Not sure if relevant, but short personal anecdote. My wife used to work for a pest control company. one time…

  3. JH on Expert Nathan Confas: Experts Know BestJune 3, 2025

    Of course, experts are only considered experts when they say what you want to hear.

  4. JH on Science Claims 7% Of Adults Saw A Mass ShootingJune 3, 2025

    If you believe it is incorrect to conclude that a person with a higher IQ score tends to possess greater…

  5. JH on Science Claims 7% Of Adults Saw A Mass ShootingJune 3, 2025

    Statistics show that individuals aged 80 and older represent roughly 4% of the total population, which is probably the reason…

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