Unobservable parameters abound in probability models. Why? Where do they come from? Are they needed? This is our first hardcore math lesson. You must read the written lesson today. WARNING…

Once again "IQ". We continue our quest to disabuse ourselves of the notions that "IQ" is intelligence and that one-number of summaries of intelligence are adequate. Both these contentions will…

I know I wasn't going to inflict upon you more What Are The Chances...? videos, but this was so topical, and fit in so well with the Class, that I…

Bayes's theorem, while nice, is not necessary. What counts is the relation between sets of propositions; between our assumptions and what we want to know. Bayes can even slow you…

Independence implies causality; irrelevance is consistent with logic. A reminder that there is no such thing as unconditional probability. WARNING for those reading the email version! The text below might…

Briggs note: The point Jaap makes that measurability does not equate to toxicity, i.e. causal, needs emphasizing. It's related to how you go to the doctor and some measure is,…

I have admitted many times, grudgingly, beginning long ago, that computer science guys are brilliant at marketing. That adjective is a woeful understatement. Genius, though so overused to be almost…

The peer-reviewed paper is "Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability" by Christopher W Callahan and Justin S Mankin in Nature, a paper doubtless written using electricity provided…