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Reasons Not To Like Prediction Markets
Posted inStatistics

Reasons Not To Like Prediction Markets

Note: I wrote this on Saturday morning before the events of Sunday hilariously vindicated the conclusions below. My point was to illustrate how bets are not probabilities, though they do…
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Cult Of The Mask: List Of Documented Mask Side Effects; Vexed; More! — Coronavirus Update LXIX
Posted inStatistics

Cult Of The Mask: List Of Documented Mask Side Effects; Vexed; More! — Coronavirus Update LXIX

HOW TO WIELD POWER DeSantis suspends all local COVID-19 emergency orders Gov. DeSantis signed several executive orders to immediately suspend and eventually invalidate by July 1 all local emergency orders…
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Academic: Genetically Engineer Shorter People To Battle “Climate Change”
Posted inStatistics

Academic: Genetically Engineer Shorter People To Battle “Climate Change”

This classic post originally ran 25 July 2014. I have corrected the text where my enemies inserted errors. The original title said "global warming", as it used to be known,…
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Posted inStatistics

Over-Certainty Is One Of The Main Causes Of Bad Science: Brain Volume & IQ Example

Announcement Next week I am on vacation as I prepare for the Cultural Event of the year. There will be no new posts: there may be classic reposts. Don't miss…
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BLACK! Babies Die At White Doctors’ Hands! Wee Ps Say So
Posted inCulture

BLACK! Babies Die At White Doctors’ Hands! Wee Ps Say So

Week or two back the world was shocked to learn that white doctors were killing BLACK! babies. Not the ones that haven't escaped their mothers' wombs: that's old, and even…
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Z-Scores Are Misleading & Create Panic: Or, How Not To Compare Pandemics
Posted inStatistics

Z-Scores Are Misleading & Create Panic: Or, How Not To Compare Pandemics

A number of people panicked to the point their minds have turned to quivering jelly, angry at my calmness, have been emailing and tweeting me the equivalent of "Oh yeah,…
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Blog Year In Review: Top 10 Reader & My Favorites
Posted inFun

Blog Year In Review: Top 10 Reader & My Favorites

Tune in tomorrow to make your 2020 predictions! Results for 2019 coming Thursday. Reader Favorites Here were the Top 10 reader favorite posts of 2019, in which the numbers surprised…
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Making P-values Weer To Achieve Significance Won’t Help
Posted inStatistics

Making P-values Weer To Achieve Significance Won’t Help

Mini-paper out in JAMA by Matt Vassar and pals: "Evaluation of Lowering the P Value Threshold for Statistical Significance From .05 to .005 in Previously Published Randomized Clinical Trials in…
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  1. Paul Murphy on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    hey doc Steven Hayward's substack post on "Pope Bob" https://stevehayward.substack.com/p/pope-bob includes an image and summary of a book on "evaluative…

  2. JH on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    Probability is defined on a sigma field. But what exactly is a sigma field? In simpler terms, it represents the…

  3. Johnno on Miracle Or Coincidence? What Are The Chances?May 9, 2025

    What are the political leanings of the naturally elotrocuted, and can we use them for our cause, or does their…

  4. Paul Fischer on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    Always thought-provoking, William. The comments section’s a bit hostile today. To really grasp what Matt is driving at, you have…

  5. Briggs on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    JH, My IQ is simplicity itself to estimate. I have no IQ. Pick up any stats books and look under…

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