Hypothesis testing has told us what probably isn't true. It can't see all evidence. Here's how to do it right. Video https://youtu.be/5yoRSQMWle4 Links: YouTube * Twitter - X * Rumble…

We want Pr(Hypothesis true|Evidence) but get Pr(Data we didn't see | Hypothesis false). This makes no sense, but I promise that is what is done. My friends, it gets real…

I stole that title, ripped it right off, word-for-word, from the Study Finds website, a source rich in The Science exaggerations. I pulled off this heist because I can't think…

We want Pr(Y|X) where Y is a question about the world and X all/everything/in toto of what we assume is probative. That's not what we get usually. But we should!…

This is a revamped and updated classic post with new material. It first appeared on 6 February 2020. It's time to revisit this topic, as we'll see below. Polygenic scores…

I forgot to remind you of this week's What Are The Chances? video. A truck carrying 216,000 dice spilled onto the highway, and they said the total was exactly 756,000.…

Unobservable parameters abound in probability models. Why? Where do they come from? Are they needed? This is our first hardcore math lesson. You must read the written lesson today. WARNING…

I flatter myself that this is the best general thing I have written to explain why you must never, not ever, use a p-value, hypothesis test, "significance", Bayes value, or…