Posted inStatistics
Trend Models & The Inability To Discover Cause
The plot atop this post is one of an observable, the cause of which is known to be related to a variety of physical, chemical, biological, geographical, and even sociological…
Posted inClass Statistics
Taleb’s Curious Views On Probability — Part III: Ergodicity & All That
Read Part I, Part II Ergodic in probability has a technical definition. Without going into mathematical details (which are fine except possibly when applied), a "sequence" is defined as a…
Posted inStatistics
Eliminate The P-Value (and Bayes Factor) Altogether & Replace It With This
Good news and bad news. Good news it that there is a growing number of people who are aware that p-values are sinking science and they want to do something,…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
There Is No “Problem” Of Old Evidence In Bayesian Theory
Update I often do a poor job setting the scene. Today we have the solution to an age-old problem (get it? get it?), a "problem" thought to be a reason…
Posted inStatistics
Clever Statistical Method To Discover Fraud (Or Mistakes)
This is in the I-wish-I-had-thought-of-it category. A simple tool that suggests where fraud or major malfunctions in statistical research might exist. First, a description of the tool; second, a description…
Posted inClass Statistics
Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part VII
Review! This is our last week of theory. Next week the practical side begins in earnest. However much fun that will be, and it will be a jolly time, this…
Posted inStatistics
Nature: “‘One-size-fits-all’ threshold for P values under fire.” Good. Shoot Them All Down
Nature magazine reports "'One-size-fits-all' threshold for P values under fire: Scientists hit back at a proposal to make it tougher to call findings statistically significant." Researchers are at odds over…
Posted inStatistics
Real Versus Statistical Control
The ideal experiment is one in which control is exerted over all aspects of an environment. We desire to measure an outcome; for ease suppose this is a simple number.…
