Laplace infamously calculated the probability, given his evidence, the sun would rise in the east tomorrow at (something like) 0.9999995. Many objected, saying it's much higher. Who was right? Laplace!…

The scientist stood before them.He announced his result with glee.It sounds impossible?Can you say it's not bull?It's true 'cause my P is wee! Until classical statistics, with its focus on…

My friend (and friend of ours) Bob Kurland gave the presentation "Our Goldilocks Universe" at the Institute for Theological Encounter with Science and Technology on anthropic coincidences. These are my…

There is nothing magical or mystical about simulations, and "randomness" has nothing to do with any of them. Let's remove the unrealistic thinking from simulations by understanding them for what…

Here my friends is the whole of probability and uncertainty, in highlight form. A quick overview of where we have been, what we're doing, and where we're going. All can…

Keeping with Fadeback Fridays, which is soon to be an international success, this classic post, which originally ran on 23 December 2016. It's yet another in an endless supply of…

Since we'll soon be discussing cause in the Class, and nowhere is cause as difficult as it is in quantum mechanics, and because somebody recently reminded me of Scott Locklin's…

Jaynes's book (first part): https://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf Permanent class page: https://www.wmbriggs.com/class/ Uncertainty & Probability Theory: The Logic of Science Link to all Classes. Jaynes's book (first part): Video https://videopress.com/v/sWKPQTAU?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=true Links: YouTube Twitter…