Search Results for “probability” – Page 122

Top 10 Sure Things: Which NFL Games Were The Easiest To Pick?

Today's post is over at Edgehogs. I wanted to see how extreme bookies would go in making NFL picks, as judged by the probabilities of home-team wins as derived from…

Fun Statistics

How To Find True Love: The Marriage Problem

MEB + ARK, a.k.a. the Haystack Hunters, wrote the following: As fans of your work in real life probability and breaking the law of averages, we were hoping you could…

Statistics

Increasing Replication Of Un-Reproducibility In Science

Best science picture of the year, courtesy of the Wall Street Journal (and thanks to reader Dan Hughes): In just the last decade---ten mere years---the number of "peer-reviewed" journal articles…

Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part VI Climate Model Focus

This is a technical addendum to the main series. I would have skipped this, but Climategate 2.0 revealed many misapprehensions of verification statistics that I want to clear up, particularly…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part V

We have in our hands (via the predictive posterior) the probabilities that Susy's GPA is less than any number between 0 and 4, given that we accept the normal model…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part IV

In Part I we had the simplest kind of model. We complicated it in Part II, built more structure in Part III, and today finally come to the most used…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part III

We have had two cases so far: arbitrary models for counterfactual Martians (Part I) and a deduced model for an urn holding dichotomous objects (Part II). The logic was identical…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part II

The models in Part I might not have "felt right" to you. But if that is so it is because your diet of probability examples has been too narrowly constricted.…

Cary D Cotterman on Justice Ketanji RoarsApril 7, 2026
How Democrats can support this woman without embarrassment just proves that they're, well, Democrats.
Uncle Mike on Justice Ketanji RoarsApril 7, 2026
KBJ is a flaming "liberal" Marxist typical of her identity group. She and they endorse sodomy and grooming of children…
Heresolong on Justice Ketanji RoarsApril 7, 2026
"the community has determined that efforts to change a patient’s sexual orientation or gender identity will necessarily be ineffective." And…
gareth on Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The WarApril 7, 2026
Well written Briggs. When people, informed by BBC or Sky, used to say "that Idiot Trump" or whatever, I used…
Uncle Mike on Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The WarApril 6, 2026
On Easter Sunday no less. I recall when Joe Dementia declared Easter to be National Tranny Day. I thought he…