Posted inStatistics
How Many Geniuses Are There?
This post originally appeared 15 September 2008. Here is a question I often give on exams: What is the probability that the next child to be born will be a…
Posted inPhilosophy
Universal Skepticism Debunked — Guest Post by The Cranky Professor
Universal Skepticism and Its Problem with Pulling Goal Posts on Every Knowledge Claim Universal skepticism (otherwise known as absolute skepticism or global skepticism) is the view that real knowledge is…
Posted inStatistics
Statistics Vs. Artificial Intelligence
https://twitter.com/drewconway/status/1010137695664951297 This meme which heads today's post (see discussion under this tweet a modification of an original cartoon) expresses the true distinction between statistics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence. Which…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
On True And False Theories
What makes a theory true? Bad question, that. Conflates too easily why a theory is true with our knowledge whether a theory is true. Both are subjects of great interest,…
Posted inStatistics
Another Proof Statistics Cannot Discover Cause
We discussed this before, but since it has come up recently in personal discussions, I wanted to offer this clarification. Suppose we're in a standard epidemiological situation, or even a…
Posted inClass Statistics
Making Random Draws Is Nuts
Let's do a little science experiment together. Go into the closet and pull out an opaque sack or bag. Anything will do, even a large sock. If you can fit…
Posted inStatistics
Possibility Versus Probability & Decision
Philip Pilkington, author of the buyable The Reformation in Economics: A Deconstruction and Reconstruction of Economic Theory, asks a follow-up question to the material on the precautionary principle. If probability…
Posted inClass Statistics
How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part VIII — Starting Stan
Review! You must at least review the first lessons---all class material is on one page for ease. I'll have more words about the mysticism of simulation, but I've said it…
