Search Results for “probability” – Page 51

Why Simple Models Are Better Than Complex In Finance, Climate, Coronadoom & More

Right after yesterday's post on (again) why rationalism and reason fail as philosophies, and on their severe limitations, I read an article profiling Gerd Gigerenzer and his "simple rules". It…

Philosophy

Cognitive Bayes & Rationality: Why Theoretical Explanations Charging People With Conspiracy Theories Fails

Fun quiz time! This is some data: x = c(0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1). Something caused that data to be. I know what it is,…

Philosophy Statistics

Dear Quacks & Experts: Your Loss Function Is Not Our Loss Function

Note to the colleague who wrote me. I lost your email! You asked excellent questions about the post Classical Statistics Has Outlived Its Usefulness: Here’s The Fix, which I meant…

Philosophy Statistics

Why (Scott Alexander’s) Bayesian Rationality Fails

Scott Alexander, late of Slate Star Codex, and New York Times doxee, is the subject of Curtis Yarvin nee Moldbug's latest. Rather, Alexander's (and Moldbug's? see postscript) Bayesian rationality is.…

Philosophy Statistics

Classical Statistics Has Outlived Its Usefulness: Here’s The Fix

A PDF of this article may be downloaded here. This article is a precis of Uncertainty. Opening Act Patient walks into the doctor and says, "Doc, I saw that new…

Statistics

Disproving Kossin’s Increasing Hurricane Intensity Claims: Update — Guest Post by Greg Kent

Editor's note I have strong views on statistical "significance", confidence intervals, p-values, and all that, finding them harmful and worse. However, Kossin used these concepts, and a criticism of his…

Statistics

UK Madness Level Turned To 11: Coronavirus Upate XLVIII

THE UK https://twitter.com/Albion_Rover/status/1348600356754903040 I said last week "The UK has lost its mind." They have moved to Madness Level 11 since then, proposing allowing people outside only once per week,…

Fun

How’d We Do On Our 2020 Predicitons?

Dismally. Lousy. That's how we did on our 2020 predictions. Nobody saw the global insanity of the lockdowns, the Cult of the Mask, the covidiots, the scale of the election…

Johnno on Scientists Invent New Name For Models: Digital TwinsFebruary 1, 2026
So instead of any actual fieldwork and gathering physical materials and samples, will the scientists now be using digital replicas…
Robert Berger on Physics & Vertical Causation: The End of Quantum Reality by Wolfgang Smith ReviewedFebruary 1, 2026
Thel Physics comments miss the entire metaphysical point ! (for the most part) We are now getting back to essence.…
Robert Berger on Wolfgang Smith’s Vision Of Oneness — Guest Post by Ianto WattFebruary 1, 2026
Whatever failures there are in the human writings and thought of Wolfgang Smith, he is the best mind on Physics…
Paul Fischer on Class 77: Trendy Trends In Time SeriesJanuary 30, 2026
Great lecture, William. Took a year of time series in grad school...all math, zero discussion of how fragile “trends” really…
Martin on Fatima, Russia & You, Part IV — Guest Post by Ianto WattJanuary 30, 2026
Brilliant. Thank you.