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Taleb Chastises Calm Journalist, Advises Precautionary Panic To Coronavirus
Posted inStatistics

Taleb Chastises Calm Journalist, Advises Precautionary Panic To Coronavirus

Background Some blue check journalist named Ferris Jabr, in a raw display of sobriety for a member of the Indigo Cheka, said None of this is to belittle what is…
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New Paper: Parameter-Centric Analysis Grossly Exaggerates Certainty
Posted inStatistics

New Paper: Parameter-Centric Analysis Grossly Exaggerates Certainty

By moi as well. Paper link. Abstract: The reason probability models are used is to characterize uncertainty in observables. Typically, certainty in the parameters of fitted models based on their…
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On That Climate-Change-Now-Detectable-From-Any-Single-Day-Of-Weather Paper
Posted inStatistics

On That Climate-Change-Now-Detectable-From-Any-Single-Day-Of-Weather Paper

The peer-reviewed paper is "Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale" by Sippel and Knutti an others in Nature: Climate Change. Look at that…
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Researcher In AI Responds To Criticisms
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Researcher In AI Responds To Criticisms

I received this thoughtful, and may I say highly accurate, email from reader EN, which I include in full below. I removed the age and name to protect EN's identity.…
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On That Fluoride-IQ Study & Statistical Silliness
Posted inStatistics

On That Fluoride-IQ Study & Statistical Silliness

I am in the Northwoods at the water's edge, far from the teeming masses, and I only had time to glance through this new study that claims that women who…
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That Study Claiming Religious Kids Are Less Altruistic That I Said Stinks Was Retracted
Posted inStatistics

That Study Claiming Religious Kids Are Less Altruistic That I Said Stinks Was Retracted

Long-time readers will recall the original criticisms of the paper "The Negative Association between Religiousness and Children's Altruism across the World" by Jean Decety, Jason M. Cowell, Kang Lee, Susan…
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The Epidemiologist Fallacy Strikes Again — Pesticides & Autism
Posted inStatistics

The Epidemiologist Fallacy Strikes Again — Pesticides & Autism

Long-time readers will recall the epidemiologist fallacy is a shotgun marriage of the ecological fallacy and wee p-values. Make that and/or confidence intervals. For confidence intervals are equivalent to p-values…
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An Infinity of Null Hypotheses — Another Anti-P-Value Argument
Posted inStatistics

An Infinity of Null Hypotheses — Another Anti-P-Value Argument

This is extracted from this set of papers, which should be read in full. An ordinary regression model is written      mu = beta_0x_1 + ... + beta_0x_p, where mu…
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  1. Briggs on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 13, 2026

    Anon. I believe you'll find they are the same. I did a little shorthand by first taking the absolute value…

  2. Anonymous on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 13, 2026

    Errata: your moneyline formula should have (x - 100) in the denominator for -x.

  3. Dana on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 12, 2026

    I was cured of buying lotto tickets about 40 years ago when a Brisbane newspaper published an article about gambling,…

  4. John M on Register Your Predictions For 2026!January 12, 2026

    1. Substack stops copying social media on their homepage and when they realize Substack is for people who want to…

  5. Brian (bulaoren) on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 12, 2026

    It's even worse; "Handicap" is now a forbidden term.

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